Aurora Borealis Displays Could Dazzle New York Next Week

NEW YORK — Fireworks on the sun on the Fourth of July could bring colorful aurora borealis displays to parts of the far northern U.S. this weekend, but there’s a better chance next week for people in 17 U.S. states — including New York — to see the ethereal curtains of light.

On Tuesday, a large active region on the sun spewed a huge cloud of charged solar particles into space, an event known as a coronal mass ejection, or CME. Carried by solar wind, these gas-charged plasma particles were expected to reach Earth’s magnetic field on Friday.

The collision of electrons from space and atoms and molecules in Earth’s atmosphere “produce light much like how electrons flowing through gas in a neon light collide with neon and other gasses to produce different colored light bulbs,” NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said on its website.

The agency issued a minor geomagnetic storm watch for Friday. The auroras could graze the northernmost reaches of a few states and into central Minnesota Friday and Saturday nights, according to the northern lights forecast.

But wait until next week.

The University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute predicts aurora activity will be high(+) Thursday, July 13, in parts of Canada and the United States.

States that could see the northern lights include Alaska, Washington, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts and Indiana.

In New York, the highest chance appears to be in upstate New York.

• Related: Understanding Kp Indices And More Tips For Aurora Hunters

The Geophysical Institute forecasts the Kp index — the measure of auroral strength — will be around 6 on a 9-point scale next Thursday. In general, the chances of seeing the northern flights are best with a Kp index of at least 5.

Aurora forecasts are notoriously tricky and can quickly change. The Space Weather Prediction Center, which updates its aurora forecasts every 30 minutes, is expected to release its own forecast as July 13 gets closer.

Anytime the northern lights are active, the best times to see auroras are between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. Get away from city lights for the best viewing opportunities. A waning crescent moon at less than 50 percent illumination will help aurora hunters on Thursday.

This is a particularly active time for the solar storms that produce the northern lights. We’re approaching the expected 2025 peak — called “solar maximum” — of an 11-year solar cycle in which the sun’s magnetic fields flip polarity.

• Related: Why Aurora Displays Are Becoming More Frequent

Until 2025, the auroral oval — the area on Earth where the lights are visible — will continue to widen, increasing the chances that the northern lights will dance at lower altitudes.

Last April, people who don’t often see the auroras were surprised by jaw-dropping northern lights displays in more than two dozen states, some as far south as Florida.

• Related: Perseids And Other Meteor Showers Tune Up In July