Meteorological Winter Is Here: See Winter Weather Predictions For NY

NEW YORK — Last week, a blast of frigid weather heralded the arrival of meteorological winter on Dec. 1, but immediately gave way to mild conditions across most of the New York metro region. So when can we expect snow and other winter weather to descend upon the area?

Here is a look at the latest snow forecasts and winter weather predictions.

It will be a balmy start to December, with highs in the 40s and 50s forecasted for most of the week. Weekend temperatures could approach 60 degrees, according to forecasters with the National Weather Service. Still, lows will drop into the 20s mid-week, and the past two weeks have offered more than enough nights with wind chills in the teens to have residents concerned about the season to come.

El Niño conditions are already inevitable, according to a consensus of scientists, with sea temperatures in the Pacific several degrees warmer than usual. This warmer water impacts what weather is carried on the winds to the United States.

It's now considered very likely that this will keep temperatures warmer across much of the eastern seaboard, and conditions will likely "squash any widespread and meaningful cold in Northern Eurasia and eastern North America for weeks and possibly even months to come," Judah Cohen, with the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, said last week.

The most recently updated long-range forecasts, however, advise residents not to be fooled by this warmer than usual winter. Just because the overall average will be higher, and there's a likelihood of more outlier days of unusual warmth, doesn't mean there won't be snow. Quite the opposite.

The New York metro area has a 33 to 40 percent chance at more precipitation, including snow, than a normal year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration Climate Prediction Center's mid-November updated forecast. The rest of the state is expected to see average winter precipitation.

So when will this snow come?

According to AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, there could be multiple nor'easters that hit the state in January and February, dumping inches of snow compared to the below-average amounts that the majority of the region saw over the relatively weak 2022-23 winter.

"As we get into the back end of the winter season, that will be our best opportunity to see some of these big northeast systems," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.

The window for snow-producing nor'easters "will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted.

Long-range meteorologists with AccuWeather are predicting 18-26 inches of snowfall this season in New York City, which is around the historical average but far higher than last year's totals.

The Farmer's Almanac said in its extended 2023-24 winter forecast that the Northeast region is in for plenty of winter rain, sleet, and snow.

"For those of you living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, you should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with," the Farmers' Almanac predicts.