Northern Lights Forecast Downgraded For New York

NEW YORK — A new aurora forecast calls for "active activity" Wednesday and Thursday for parts of North America, including upstate New York.

As Patch reported last week, a large active region on the sun spewed a huge cloud of charged solar particles into space, an event known as a coronal mass ejection, or CME. Carried by solar wind, these gas-charged plasma particles were expected to reach Earth’s magnetic field.

The collision of electrons from space and atoms and molecules in Earth’s atmosphere “produce light much like how electrons flowing through gas in a neon light collide with neon and other gasses to produce different colored light bulbs,” NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center said on its website.

The agency issued a minor geomagnetic storm watch for last Friday, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute had predicted aurora activity would be high(+) Thursday, July 13, in parts of Canada and the United States.

In general, the chances of seeing the northern flights are best with a Kp index of at least 5. On Tuesday, the prediction was downgraded from a 6 to a 5.

The northernmost tip of New York appeared to be included in the active activity forecast. In general, the chances of seeing the northern flights are best with a Kp index of at least 5.

States that could see the northern lights include Alaska, Washington, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New York, New Hampshire, Vermont, Maryland, Massachusetts and Indiana.

New Yorkers will need some help from Mother Nature — Wednesday night is expected to be partly cloudy, and rain is likely Thursday night, according to the National Weather Service.

• Related: Understanding Kp Indices And More Tips For Aurora Hunters

Aurora forecasts are notoriously tricky and can quickly change. The Space Weather Prediction Center, which updates its aurora forecasts every 30 minutes, is expected to release its own forecast as July 13 gets closer.

Anytime the northern lights are active, the best times to see auroras are between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., according to the Space Weather Prediction Center. Get away from city lights for the best viewing opportunities. A waning crescent moon at less than 50 percent illumination will help aurora hunters on Thursday.

This is a particularly active time for the solar storms that produce the northern lights. We’re approaching the expected 2025 peak — called “solar maximum” — of an 11-year solar cycle in which the sun’s magnetic fields flip polarity.

• Related: Why Aurora Displays Are Becoming More Frequent

Until 2025, the auroral oval — the area on Earth where the lights are visible — will continue to widen, increasing the chances that the northern lights will dance at lower altitudes.
Last April, people who don’t often see the auroras were surprised by jaw-dropping northern lights displays in more than two dozen states, some as far south as Florida.

• Related: Perseids And Other Meteor Showers Tune Up In July