How Hot Will It Be On LI This Summer? Updated Temperature Outlook

LONG ISLAND, NY — What appears to be a rapid switch to an El Niño climate pattern could affect how summer shapes up on Long Island, according to an updated summer temperature outlook released Thursday by two private weather companies.

Some areas of the country could see the coolest summer temperatures since 2017, while it’s expected to be hotter than usual in the central U.S., according to the outlook from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

Here’s how the outlook, which looks at temperatures relative to average, breaks it down for Long Island from June-August:

• June: The Northeast is expected to see higher than normal temperatures in June, including all of New York.
• July: Temperatures in New York are expected to continue falling in August, but will still remain about near-average for almost all the state in August, except for a sliver of upstate.
• August: Temperatures are expected to fall closer to near-average for most of New York in July, except for parts of upstate.

An El Niño is a naturally occurring warming of the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific that can cause months- or years-long changes in temperature and precipitation. Its effects are generally experienced more in the winter months, but it can result in cooler-than-normal summers and increased rainfall.

With the switch to this climate pattern, the summer temperature outlook could be revised in the months ahead, according to Todd Crawford, the vice president of meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and the author of the outlook.

El Niño has not yet been officially declared. For that to happen, the pattern must be in place for at least three months. Central and eastern Pacific water temperatures already meet the threshold, according to Crawford.

Right now, here’s how things look for the country:

• June: The summer is expected to start on a cool note across much of the Southwest, while the rest of the country’s southern tier of states should see near-average or cooler-than-normal temperatures. Along the northern tier of states, temperatures are expected to be warmer.
• July: The heat is expected to push south through the plains to the Southwest, setting up a warmup from cool June temperatures in the southern Rockies and southern Plains. Some areas of both coasts, particularly southern California, could remain near average or slightly cooler.
• August: The heat is expected to persist or even intensify from the Plains to the upper Midwest, but some areas of the Northeast and West Coast are expected to see near-average or slightly cooler temperatures.