El Niño May Be 'Historically Strong' In 2024: What It Means For NYC

NEW YORK CITY - The El Niño climate pattern associated with coastal storms, temperature swings and snowier late winters in the Northeast may top records this year, climate experts say.

There’s a 54% chance that El Niño, known for bringing high-moisture winter storms like the fierce systems New Yorkers saw this week, will end up “historically strong” and ranking in the top 5 on record, Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the The Climate Prediction Center, wrote last month. Read more: NYC Weather: Second Storm Set To Soak City This Week

That tracks with AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, which predicts there could be multiple nor'easters to the state in January and February dumping inches of snow compared to the below-average amounts that the majority of New Yorkers saw over the relatively weak 2022-23 winter.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted, noting "a strengthening El Niño will make this winter different than last year."

The “historically strong” El Niño status will arise if the three-month-average temperature of the central tropical Pacific Ocean, specifically in the Niño-3.4 region, is 2°C hotter than the average range.

Current models from the The Climate Prediction Center show that El Niño will end April­ to June, with a La Niña event in the cards for July to September. That weather pattern typically means lower precipitation totals and more rain than snow for the tri-state area.

This year’s El Niño, which began developing in June, is the first in four years. Not all El Niños are the same, and that adds uncertainty to winter forecasts, according to The Weather Channel. In general, the forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern U.S. from the Great Lakes to western Canada to Alaska; drier-than-normal conditions in the Midwest and Ohio Valley; wetter conditions in the Southwest; and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the South and Southeast.

The winter of 2015-16 was the warmest U.S. winter on record, and the El Niño that year was one of the strongest on record. Experts say that the current El Niño could mean sweltering temperatures in 2024.

“El Niño impacts on global temperature typically play out in the year after its development, in this case in 2024,” WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas told EuroNews, adding that, due to record-high land and sea surface temperatures in June 2023, this year could be even warmer.

But just because El Niño winters often mean lower snowfall totals overall, fierce storms aren’t out of the question, as New Yorkers saw this week.

Another winter storm is set to hit the state Friday, this time bringing up to two inches of rain, damaging winds and a chance of coastal flooding due to the snow melt and saturated ground from this week’s earlier storms.

The heaviest rain is expected Friday night through Saturday morning, with precipitation to begin around the late afternoon, the National Weather Service said. The risk of river flooding will continue through the weekend.

Here’s the latest forecast, according to the National Weather Service:

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Southwest wind around 14 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

Friday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 5 to 11 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Rain before midnight, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3 a.m., then rain after 3 a.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperature falling to near 43 by 8 p.m., then rising to around 50 during the remainder of the night. Windy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 23 to 28 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday: Rain likely before 7 a.m., then a chance of showers between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a temperature rising to near 54 by 10 a.m., then falling to around 44 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Windy.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy.