Here’s How Sweltering NYC Is Expected To Get This Century

NEW YORK – Sweltering temperatures that baked New York City this month and caused a meltdown for Con Edison's power supply look set to become much more common, a new report released by climate watchers warns.

Few areas of the country will not be impacted by extreme heat by midcentury, according to the study by the Union of Concerned Scientists, a nonprofit advocacy group based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

And in NYC, the number of heat waves will substantially increase unless rapid action is taken, the report says.

Historically, New York City averages 16 days a year when the heat index tops 90 degrees and two days when it's hotter than 100. There are no days hotter than 105, the report says.

The scientists' report predicted how many high heat index days we will face, depending on the level of action governments take now.

Midcentury
Slow action
90 degree days: 41
100 degree days: 11
105 degree days: 4
Off the charts days (more than 127 degrees): 0

No action
90 degree days: 51
100 degree days: 18
105 degree days: 8
Off the charts days: 0

Late century
Slow action:
90 degree days: 50
100 degree days: 15
105 degree days: 7
Off the charts days: 0

No action
90 degree days: 81
100 degree days: 40
105 degree days: 25
Off the charts days: 2

Rapid action:
90 degree days: 43
100 degree days: 11
105 degree days: 4
Off the charts days: 0

Should we take no action to reduce emissions, the average number of days across the country that feel warmer than 100 degrees will more than double to about 36 by midcentury, the organization found. By the end of the century, that number would increase to 54.

Kristina Dahl, senior climate scientist at the organization and co-author of the report, said the analysis shows a “hotter future that’s hard to imagine.”

“Nearly everywhere, people will experience more days of dangerous heat even in the next few decades,” she said in a news release.

If emissions aren’t reduced, parts of Florida and Texas would see at least five months per year with a heat index of at least 100 degrees by the end of the century. Most of these days would exceed 105 degrees and many would be so extreme they’d be classified as off the charts — a condition currently only seen in the Sonoran desert on the border of southern California and Arizona.

“Such conditions could pose unprecedented health risks,” she said.

Many places are unaccustomed to these levels of extreme heat, such as the upper Midwest, Northeast and Northwest, and the ability of people and infrastructure in these places to cope with the new normal is “woefully inadequate,” said Rachel Licker, senior climate scientist at the organization and report co-author.

The Southeast and Southern Great Plains are expected to bear the brunt of the extreme heat, the authors found, and by late century, residents in these areas “may have to significantly alter ways of life,” she said.

“ We don’t know what people would be able and willing to endure, but such heat could certainly drive large-scale relocation of residents toward cooler regions,” said Licker.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.