NYC Jails Don't Hurt Crime Rates Or Property Values: Analysis

NEW YORK — Neighbors of the four jails slated to replace Rikers Island shouldn't worry about crime spiking or property values dropping near their homes, a new report suggests.

Property values and crime rates within a five-minute walk of four existing lockups in the city are comparable to or better than those of their surrounding neighborhoods, according to an analysis released Thursday by the Independent Commission on New York City Criminal Justice and Incarceration Reform.

The Brooklyn Detention Complex also did not depress property values or drive up crime after it reopened in 2012 — and the Queens Detention Complex did not do the reverse when it closed in 2001, according to the commission, which recommended closing Rikers in April 2017.

The report addresses concerns about the potential impact of the massive new jails meant to replace the notoriously dangerous Rikers complex amid heated debate over whether they should be built.

"While some have understandably voiced concerns around the potential impact detention facilities will have on the surrounding community, this analysis confirms that there is no observable impact on two critical areas of concern: property values and crime rates," Jonathan Lippmann, the former state chief judge who chairs the commission, said in a statement.

"As community members and elected officials evaluate the plan to close Rikers and transition to a smaller borough-based system, it is our hope that they will weigh the data and evidence contained in our report."

The report comes as Mayor Bill de Blasio's administration ushers his plans to replace Rikers with new jails in each borough but Staten Island through the city's land-use review process. The city wants to shutter the Rikers jails by 2026 and open new ones that it says will be smaller, safer and more humane.

Researchers compared the property values and crime rates in the immediate vicinities of four exisiting lockups to those in the broader surrounding neighborhoods. The analysis incorporated more than 10,000 real estate transactions and 500,000 NYPD criminal complaints.

It looked at the Manhattan Detention Complex and the Brooklyn Detention Complex, two city jails that will be replaced with new ones under de Blasio's plan. Also included were the Lincoln Correctional Facility, a state prison in Harlem, and the Metropolitan Detention Center Brooklyn, a federal jail in Sunset Park.

Median residential sales prices from 2016 to 2018 near three of the four jails were actually higher than those of the broader neighborhoods where they are located, the report says. The exception was Lincoln, which had a median price slightly lower than Central Harlem's but slightly higher than parts of East Harlem, researchers found.

Areas near the jails also have similar crime rates — measured as the number of NYPD criminal complaints per 1,000 residents in 2018 — to the broader areas around them, the report says. The rate near the Manhattan Detention Complex is close to SoHo and Tribeca's, which is well below that of the Lower East Side and Chinatown, the analysis shows.

Researchers also assessed how property values and crime change when a jail opens or closes. Since it reopened in 2012, the metrics near the Brooklyn Detention Complex have largely followed the trends for the surrounding neighborhoods of Downtown Brooklyn, Brooklyn Heights, Carroll Gardens and Red Hook, the analysis showed.

The same goes for the Queens Detention Complex, which closed in Kew Gardens in 2001. Home values have grown at the same rate as surrounding neighborhoods since then, and crime rates have fallen at the same pace as other southern Queens precincts, the report says.

The report comes after community boards in Queens, Manhattan and The Bronx voted against the de Blasio administration's plans for new jails in their boroughs. The votes are not binding, but they reflect localized opposition to the plans, which must be approved by the City Planning Commission and the City Council.

That opposition is also evidenced by the creation of Boroughs United, a coalition of community groups from the four affected boroughs who are campaigning against the jails. The group has launched a website that accuses de Blasio of pushing a "regressive" plan as he campaigns for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The activists aren't concerned with property values or crime so much as the city's proposal to spend billions of dollars on new lockups that could instead support alternatives to incarceration and other community investments, said Nancy Kong, a spokeswoman for Boroughs United.

"Those weren’t our issues," said Kong, a Chinatown resident who co-founded the community group Neighbors United Below Canal. "They’re making these issues ... because they’re trying to divert the attention from a very flawed and ill-conceived plan."