Will NYC Have A White Christmas In 2021?

NEW YORK CITY — Everybody dreams of a white Christmas, but rarely does the dream come true. The last time there was snow on the ground on Christmas Day in New York City was in 2009.

But the hope continues, and newly released forecasts by prognosticators including Farmers’ Almanac and Accuweather give an idea if it's realistic or not.

In NYC, the Farmers' Almanac's Christmas forecast says it's possible.

Residents of the Northeast can expect cold weather to arrive in time for the Christmas holiday. There could be scattered snow showers or flurries, the forecast says.

The chance for snow is thanks to La Niña, a meteorological phenomenon during which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels.

La Niña tends to steer storms northward and cuts off moisture to the southern portion of the United States.

If no snow falls on Christmas Day, will NYC at least see snow on the ground from earlier falls? The chances of that are low, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.

Using three decades worth of climatological measurements, the Farmers’ Almanac annually predicts the probability that a snow depth of at least 1 inch will be recorded on Christmas Day. This year, the probability is about 25 percent or less.

In the Sierras, Cascades, the leeward side of the Great Lakes and northern New England, Christmas snow cover is a near certainty, Farmers’ Almanac says. In these regions, most precipitation in late autumn and early winter falls as snow, making the probability of snowfall exceed 25 percent.

For those who opt for a warm Christmas, the best places to be in late December will be Southern California, the lower elevations of the Southwest and Florida.

Accuweather also released its 2021 holiday forecast this week, and its predictions are similar.

New York could be in for cloudy skies with a high temperature around 47 degrees and a low of 30.

Accuweather also looks at the historical probability of white Christmases. Typically in New York, there’s a less than 25 percent chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground by the holiday weekend.

This year, the odds are lower than normal, according to Accuweather.

The fascination with a white Christmas was likely popularized by the writings of Charles Dickens. The depiction of a snow-covered Christmas season in his 1843 classic “A Christmas Carol,” and a number of his other short stories, was reportedly influenced by memories of his childhood.

The song “White Christmas,” written by Irving Berlin and sung by Bing Crosby, is among the best-selling singles of all time. The tune nostalgically speaks of a white Christmas and has since become embedded in American holiday traditions.