La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For Long Island

LONG ISLAND, NY — It's been a dry summer on Long Island. Nassau County has experienced historically low rainfall output, down 5 inches from normal levels. It's the driest year to date in 131 years, drought.gov said.

But there is some potential help coming by way of La Niña.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cools down more than usual. It typically causes the northern United States to be cold and wetter than usual, and the southern states to be warmer and drier than usual.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration, most of the country, including New York, has a chance of seeing below or above seasonal precipitation amounts. The La Niña watch period is from September to November.

New York has a 40-50 percent likelihood of above normal temperatures during that timeframe, the NOAA said.

Nationwide

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from California’s Central Coast to Florida and up the entire East Coast, is moderately likely to see above-average temperatures this winter. For much of the Midwest, it is equally likely to be above or below normal. Just Washington state and southeast Alaska are likely to see below-average temperatures.

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from the Bay Area in a U-shape to the Washington D.C. area, is moderately likely to see below-average precipitation. Pockets of the Midwest, including Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, and much of Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska, are 33-40% likely to see above-average participation. The rest of the country remains uncertain.

On that note, much of this forecast remains relatively uncertain. “Nothing is guaranteed in this business,” said Michelle L’Heureux, scientist at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA updates its long-range outlooks monthly, and the next forecast is scheduled for Sept. 19. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. See here for predictions through November 2026.