2022 Fall Forecast: See What's In Store For Pennsylvania

PENNSYLVANIA — As much of the country swelters through the dog days of summer, it’s hard to fathom that meteorological autumn is less than a month away. But forecasters are already releasing their predictions for when Pennsylvania residents can expect weather perfect for hoodies and pumpkin spice everything.

Meteorological autumn kicks off Sept. 1 and continues through Nov. 30. While autumn doesn’t officially start until the Sept. 22 equinox, forecasters use consistent dates each year to easily compare one season to another.

AccuWeather recently released its 2022 fall forecast, and here in Pennsylvania, as well as across much of the Northeast, residents are not really expected to feel a significant change in temperatures during the month of September.

Summer warmth is expected to continue permeating the region, and relief may not be in sight until October rolls around.

The unseasonable warmth is even expected to delay the peak season for fall foliage in many areas, including the Keystone State.

Still, AccuWeather forecasters say it may be worth the wait, as "vibrant colors are likely to unfold on the hillsides across most of the Northeast, Great Lakes and the mid-Mississippi Valley."

After a fairly dry season in the region, Pennsylvania and some of its neighbors are also expected to finally get some relief this fall since long-range forecasters believe an increase in moisture will help stimulate rain across the Northeast and Midwest.

To determine its fall forecast, AccuWeather forecasters used data from computer models while also analyzing weather patterns around the globe and past years.

After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook for this year into one word: warm.

“With pretty good confidence this year, I think it's a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Here’s what other parts of the country could expect:

• In September, millions of residents in the Midwest won’t feel much of a change when it comes to temperature. Expect the first frost of the season to arrive one or two weeks earlier than normal across the Upper Midwest and upstate New York.

• For the third consecutive year, La Niña will supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season, which will lead to a higher threat of tropical systems making landfall this autumn.

• Drought conditions are expected to ease across the Midwest and Southeast. However, abnormally dry conditions will remain throughout most of the central United States in places like Texas, eastern New Mexico and western Kansas.

Widespread and long-term drought is expected to fuel another active wildfire season in the West. The worst of the fires are expected to develop in areas different than 2021.