Major PA Snowstorm In February ‘Likely’ After Winter Warmup: NWS

PENNSYLVANIA - Fans of winter weather in the Keystone State are likely to enjoy February, but will have to wait a week or two into the month to see major snowfall, forecasters said.

That’s because the first two weeks of February are set to continue with above average temperatures through the middle of the month, according to the National Climate Prediction Center.

“That said, February is the most likely month for our region to get a major snowstorm, so stay tuned,” the National Weather Service Mount Holly Station said.

2 years ago today! Nothing like this appears to be in the near-future. That said, February is the most likely month for our region to get a major snowstorm, so stay tuned... pic.twitter.com/bcdbdVtFoX
— NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) January 29, 2024

Historically, February gets the most snow out of any month in the year in southeast Pennsylvania, with monthly snowfall totals averaging about 6.6 inches of snowfall from 1971 to 2015. That’s compared to 6.4 inches in January and 32 inches in March.

While this year has seen far below the average snow totals so far, the ongoing El Nino climate pattern associated with coastal storms, temperature swings and snowier late winters in the region may shake things up later this season. Read more: El Niño May Be 'Historically Strong' In 2024: What It Means For PA

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted in its 2023-24 winter outlook, noting "a strengthening El Niño will make this winter different than last year."

In most El Niño winters, Pennsylvania has below-average snowfall from January to March everywhere but the southeast portion of the state, which typically sees a bit more snow than average. In moderate to strong El Niño winters, we normally see much less snowfall in the northern and central parts of the state. Pittsburgh typically sees less snow in these winters, while Philadelphia will typically gain a few inches.

For now, the only precipitation Pennsylvania residents can expect this week is plain rain Thursday night into Friday, before a sunny weekend in the 40s.

Here’s the latest forecast, according to the National Weather Service:

Wednesday: Cloudy, with a high near 44. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 36. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday: A slight chance of showers before 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26.