Shapiro Projected To Defeat Mastriano In PA Governor's Race

PENNSYLVANIA — Democrat Josh Shapiro is the projected winner of the gubernatorial race in Pennsylvania, NBC News and the Associated Press report.

Though all precincts have not yet reported, Shapiro leads 1,845,219 votes to Mastriano's 1,429,258.

"Tonight, freedom prevailed over extremism in Pennsylvania," Shapiro said Tuesday night at the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center in Exton, where he held a victory celebration with supporters. "I am honored, humbled, and proud to serve as your next Governor."

As of midnight, Mastriano had not conceded or made public statement.

"Josh always put Pennsylvania first as attorney general and is always ready to put politics aside to deliver real results — from creating more economic opportunity and improving public education to protecting reproductive freedom, keeping families safe, and defending our democracy," the Democratic Governor's Association said in a statement.

10:31 p.m.

Shapiro - 1,541,895
Mastriano - 1,101,362

10:07 p.m. Shapiro's lead holds steady.

Shapiro: 1,274,674
Mastriano: 877,327

9:30 p.m. About 90 minutes after polls closed, Shapiro's enormous early lead has continued to narrow, but it is still significant. He's nearly doubled Mastriano's vote total, 600,465 votes to 301,390, with about 19 percent of precincts reporting.

As polls indicated, Shapiro has a much bigger lead over Mastriano than fellow Democrat Fetterman does over Oz in the Senate race. That race sits at 555,535 to 339,418 in favor of Fetterman, indicating notable split-ticketing.

Split-ticketing is nothing new in the swing state of Pennsylvania, where moderate residents are often the deciding votes. In 2020, despite President Joe Biden's victory in the state over Donald Trump, Republicans won multiple other state offices.

9:26 p.m. A video circulating social media claiming to show election fraud in Philadelphia is actually a poll worker in Wisconsin checking ballots, AP reports. A message on Twitter with the video that was widely shared and commented on read "Masked man cheating in front of the cameras on the mainstream media. You can’t make it up. Make him famous. #Philadelphia #pennsylvaniafraud."

The clip was later played on the Fox News show "Faulkner Focus," claiming to report news from Pennsylvania.

9:21 p.m. Multiple Twitter accounts unrelated to news organizations, political leaders, or official state sources have prematurely declared victory for Shapiro. One with more than 5,000 followers called "The Election Center" has some 15,000 likes and thousands of retweets and comments. While Shapiro continues to hold the lead, a very small number of precincts have reported results thus far.

9:17 p.m. With rumors swirling that some Republicans may question the mail-in ballot process and the overall results tally as in 2020 and 2021, the living four former Pennsylvania governors are urging both sides to accept the results.

“Tomorrow millions of people will cast their ballots for Governor for one or the other of you,” the bipartisan cadre of Tom Corbett, Ed Rendell, Tom Ridge, and Mark Schweiker said in the letter to both candidates, copy of which was obtained by TribLive. "Those ballots will be counted. Recounts, if necessary, will be conducted. Discrepancies will be resolved and an outcome will be certified — just as we have done for hundreds of years. The process will be open and transparent — overseen by thousands of Pennsylvanians who care deeply about fairness."

9:12 p.m. Shapiro's lead has dropped more sharply as more Republican-heavy precincts report. The tally sits at 463,639 to 157,707, or roughly 73 percent in favor of Shapiro (down from 84 percent earlier in the night).

8:58 p.m. The latest results have Mastriano slightly closing the gap:

Shapiro - 326,579
Mastriano - 69,972

8:49 p.m. Mastriano supporters are hopeful that they'll get support from a group that does not traditionally vote and that may not have been included in early polls: the Amish.

"I've been working closely with (Mastriano) to try and get a lot of (Amish) people to vote," one voter told a reporter with France24."There's gonna be a terrific turnout."

8:43 p.m. Shapiro's lead has lengthened, with 306,479 votes to Mastriano's 53,006. Just 3 percent of precincts have reported.

Though returns are early, and chiefly from either mail-in votes that traditionally lean left or Democratic majority counties, there appears to be evidence of "split ticketing," with Shapiro holding a bigger margin than Lt. Gov. John Fetterman's lead in the U.S. Senate race of Mehmet Oz. That race is currently about 20,000 votes different, at 290,049 to 65,955.

8:28 p.m. The earliest returns have Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro with 206,232 votes, to Republican State Sen. Doug Mastriano's 35,224. Very minimal precincts have reported, as of just before 8:30 p.m.

Original story

The fate of abortion in Pennsylvania and perhaps the 2024 Presidential election hangs in the balance Tuesday in a gubernatorial race which features an establishment attorney general in the long-reigning Democratic administration against a challenging Republican that has given voice to a brand of far right populism inspired by former President Donald Trump.

Final results for the race between Mastriano and Shapiro, as well as the rest of the state, may not be in for "days," Pennsylvania's Acting Secretary of State Leigh Chapman said early Tuesday. Some 1.4 million residents voted by mail, and canvassing of those ballots was not legally allowed to begin until 7 a.m. Tuesday.

Online, multiple Twitter accounts unrelated to news organizations, political leaders, or official state sources have prematurely declared victory for Shapiro. One with more than 5,000 followers called "The Election Center" has some 15,000 likes and thousands of retweets and comments. While Shapiro continues to hold the lead, a very small number of precincts have reported results thus far.

Bombastic, exhilirating to his disciples and extremist to his opponents, Mastriano galvanized enough MAGA support to dominate the spring primary and draw attention from across the country. Scrutiny from the Jan. 6 Congressional committee for his presence at the Capitol riots and role in ballot counting process in the 2020 election only increased his profile with right-leaning voters. Among the luminaries of the new Republican Party that endorsed him and campaigned for him were both Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Mastriano has campaigned on his anti-abortion stance and his Heartbeat Bill, proposed legislation that would ban abortion with no exceptions, even in cases of rape and incest.

However, he's fallen well short in the polls to Shapiro for the entire election season. Shapiro holds an 8.3 point lead in an average of the most recent polls, according to RealClearPolitics.

RELATED: PA May Need To Wait 'Days' For Midterm Election Results

Shapiro's campaign has focused on painting Mastriano as an extremist and Shapiro as a seasoned moderate with experience handling election-related turmoil. As one of the most visible officials in Gov. Tom Wolf's administration through the 2020 election and pandemic, he gained Wolf's support and has appeared for years now as an obvious heir apparent.

However, Shapiro seemed to take a sharp stance away from the economic shutdowns, mask mandates, and other basic COVID-19 mitigation measures put in place by Wolf's administration during the height of the pandemic.

"When I talked with business leaders and education leaders, many of them expressed frustration that they were just never told anything - they were dictated to," Shapiro told the AP. "That's not the way, that's not my leadership style. That's not the way I will (do it)."

The comments came as Shapiro's campaign continued to support a growing bevy of center-right supporters that finds Republican candidate Doug Mastriano too extreme. The group of Republicans who backed Shapiro included some of those who backed Lou Barletta and David McCormick in the spring primaries. A group called "Republicans4Shapiro" has been formed by Craig Snyder, a former chief of staff for moderate republican U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, and former U.S. Rep. Jim Greenwood. The group says they'll target "the significant percentage" of registered Republicans and independents in the state who do not align with Shapiro.

In a video shared by Mastriano to his Facebook page, campaigner Joe Sterns said the movement was irreleveant, noting Trump's 2016 victory.

"They don’t need the swamp to win," Sterns said. "They’re more of a nuisance than anything.”

The winner of the gubernatorial race will not only be the determining factor in the future of touchstone issues like abortion in Pennsylvania, but will also be in charge of running election returns in 2024. With mail-in balloting and other election laws still points of heavy contention, the governor will have an outsized impact on the results.

See more coverage of the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election:

Women Should Be Charged With Murder For Abortions, Mastriano Once Said

Josh Shapiro Says He Doesn't Support Pandemic Shutdowns, Mask Mandates

Mastriano Aims To Make PA 'Florida Of The North'

FL Gov. Ron DeSantis To Campaign With Doug Mastriano In PA On Friday

Teachers Decry 'Extreme' $12 Billion Cuts in Mastriano Education Plan

Photo Surfaces Of Doug Mastriano In Confederate Uniform: Report

Roe V. Wade Struck Down, Future Of Abortion In PA Now Up To Election