US Default Could Hit During Congress' Summer Recess, Think Tank Predicts

By Jacob Fischler, Pennsylvania Capital-Star

June 25, 2025

The new estimate from the centrist Washington, D.C., think tank would give Congress slightly more time to address the issue than the center’s last analysis that projected the so-called X-date could hit as early as July.

Quarterly taxes received in April were higher than expected, while the economy has remained stable, which combined to help push the date later, the center said in a Wednesday news release.

The projection aligns with the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimate this month that the X-date would come between mid-August and the end of September.

The Bipartisan Policy Center analysis does not change the recommendation from the center, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others that Congress deal with the debt limit sooner rather than later.

“Congress must address the debt limit ahead of the August recess,” Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the center, said in the Wednesday release. “Congress can’t afford to inject any additional uncertainty into the mix. They need to act soon to prioritize our nation’s financial stability and reassure global markets that we take this responsibility seriously.”

Both the House and Senate are scheduled to be in recess Aug. 4 through Sept. 2.

If Congress does not act, the U.S. would default on its debt for the first time, likely leading to a global financial crisis.

As of June 18, the federal treasury had $384 billion in cash on hand and could save another $89 billion through “extraordinary measures,” the term for accounting tricks the government can use to save cash in an emergency.

The exact date will depend on how much the government spends in July and August — months that typically see large deficits, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

If the government can avoid the debt limit until quarterly taxes are due on Sept. 15, those receipts would likely give more breathing room until early October, the center said.

Other factors that could influence the X-date include fluctuating tariff revenue and the potential for costly hurricanes this summer.

The reconciliation package Republicans in Congress are racing to send to President Donald Trump’s desk by July Fourth includes a raise in the debt limit. The version that passed the House would raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, while the Senate version would increase it by $5 trillion.

Republican senators are scrambling this week to revamp several pieces of the legislative package as the chamber’s parliamentarian rules that some do not meet the strict rules for what can be considered under the fast-track procedure known as budget reconciliation.

The process allows the Senate to pass the bill with a simple majority, meaning Republicans could pass it without Democratic votes. But Republicans are still haggling among themselves over provisions to aid rural hospitals amid changes to Medicaid, sell off public lands and others.

Once passed in the Senate, either the House would have to approve that version or both chambers would have to vote on some kind of compromise language before Trump could sign the bill.

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