PA Sees 'Significant' Increase In COVID Percent Positivity Rate

PENNSYLVANIA — Coronavirus cases are on the rise in Pennsylvania, as the percent positivity rate on tests statewide rose from 3.2 percent to 4 percent, health officials said in their weekly update Thursday.

The increase, called "significant" by Gov. Tom Wolf, brings the state back up to its highest percent positivity rate in a month, since the week of Aug. 7.

“Our percent positivity increased significantly this week, a sign that this virus is still affecting Pennsylvanians,” Wolf said in a statement. “We must continue our focus on taking actions to protect ourselves and others, such as wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, washing our hands and avoiding large gatherings. Together, Pennsylvanians can work to prevent the spread of the virus.”

Overall, there were 5,453 cases over the most recent seven-day period for which results were available, which includes Aug. 28 to Sept. 3. That's a notable increase from the seven days prior, which saw 4,188 cases.

Officials did not provide estimates on where they believe the bulk of cases are coming from. Previously, authorities had consistently noted large social gatherings, such as parties, as a culprit. But recently, in places including Montgomery County, the rising percent positivity rate (3.17, up from 2.5 a month ago) was attributed to random, interpersonal community spread.

"This is a little more concerning because there's not a single thing to point to here," Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh said Wednesday. "We're not seeing a single large event ... where we could go in and make an intervention and really try to mitigate."

Southeastern Pennsylvania counties such as Montgomery, which previously had a very low rate, are responsible for much of the recent statewide increase. Chester County rose from 2.7 percent a week ago to 3.6 percent this week. Delaware rose from 3.4 to 4 percent, Philadelphia rose from 3.3 to 4.4 percent, and Bucks rose from 2.7 to 3.6 percent. Nearby, Lancaster also rose from 3.5 to 5 percent.

The number of counties with a "concerning" level of the virus also increased from nine to 11 over the past week. A concerning rate is considered to be anything over 5 percent.

Case investigators with the Department of Health are continuing to question all people who test positive regarding what businesses, if any, they visited in the 14 days leading up to when they first noticed symptoms. Around 44 percent of people responded, and of that group, 60 percent said they'd been to a restaurant, 14 percent said they'd been to a gym, 11 percent said they'd been to a bar, and 7 percent said they'd visited a salon or barbershop.

Additionally, 14 percent of respondents attended a "mass gathering" of more than 250 people in the two weeks leading up to first seeing symptoms.

The state says that the numbers indicate businesses "as possible sites for transmission," though the source of the vast majority of cases remains uncertain.