Montco Mathematician's 'Oscarmetrics' Predictions Were Dead On

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, PA — Renown awards statistician and Montgomery County native Ben Zauzmer has once again struck gold with his predictions for this years Oscars.

Zauzmer's algorithm correctly predicted winners in seven of the eight biggest categories, inculding Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Original Screenplay.

The Upper Dublin resident's only "miss" from the big eight in Sunday night's awards show was Best Actress, in which he gave "Killers of the Flower Moon's" Lily Gladstone a 1 percent better chance than the ultimate winner, Emma Stone in "Poor Things."

"This labor of love has come a long way, from a college dorm room to a book and a Twitter account and these annual articles," Zauzmer wrote in publishing this year's predictions in the Hollywood Reporter last week. "But the basic concept remains the same: I weight each data point based on the track record that predictor (such as precursor awards, other category nominations, betting markets, etc.) has at predicting each category."

Other categories Zauzmer's statistical model got correct included Best Documentary Feature, Best International Feature, Best Cinematography, Best Makeup and Hair Styling, Best Original Score, and Best Original Song.

In some cases, the prediction is more common sense than in others. "Oppenheimer" was a broad favorite in multiple categories this year after sweeping a broad array of awards at other major ceremonies like the Golden Globes, and not having a clear runner-up. Other years the distinction has been much more obfuscated, such as "Moonlight" vs. "La La Land" vs. "Arrival" in 2016 or "Parasite" vs. "1917" vs. "Joker" vs. "Irishman" in 2019.

2024 marked Zauzmer's 13th Oscars employing his model.