New Polls Show GOP's Rep. Fitzpatrick With Solid Lead

After recent polling showed the race for Pennsylvania's First Congressional District as a virtual dead heat, Republicans are touting a pair of new polls that show incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick holding a hearty lead in the race.

A new poll released Tuesday by a Republican political action committee showed Fitzpatrick ahead of Democratic challenger Christina Finello by 14 points, 53-39. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a company with a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight, the website focused on opinion polling.

The company has a slight Republican bias, according to the site. The poll was commissioned by the GOP-friendly Congressional Leadership Fund.

That follows another poll from American Viewpoint that shows Fitzpatrick with a similar lead, 50-35, over Finello. (American Viewpoint gets a B/C grade from FiveThirtyEight and is similarly described to have a slight Republican lean).

The newest poll was reported first by Politics PA.

The two new polls are in sharp contrast to a pair released by Finello's campaign, which showed the race — in a district which includes Bucks and a sliver of Montgomery County — as a virtual dead heat.

A June 22 poll by Victoria Research & Consulting showed the race as a dead heat and a June 15 poll by Public Policy Polling had Finello two points behind Fitzpatrick (40 to 38 percent), which was within the poll's margin of error.

Both those polls were funded by Democrats, one of them by Finello's campaign, by companies FiveThirtyEight says have very slight Democratic leans.

Working to reset expectations, Fitzpatrick's campaign said the new polls give a clearer picture of the race, in which the second-term congressman is outperforming both a generic Republican candidate and President Donald Trump in a district that is leaning increasingly Democratic.

"Christina Finello's fake push-polls, which were solely designed to lie to donors and help her fundraising, have been exposed, and it’s not going to get much better for her," said Fitzpatrick campaign spokeswoman Kate Constantini. "Her entire campaign is focused on replacing the most independent congressman in U.S. history with her far-left partisan agenda."

Finello's team, meanwhile, questioned the accuracy of the new polls.

"The Conservative Leadership Fund will do or say anything to prop up Donald Trump's allies in Washington like Brian Fitzpatrick ...," said Finello campaign manager Ali Anderson. "Fitzpatrick is relying on Trump’s special interests friends, with a history of subversive tactics, to try and get out of the pickle he's in after voting with Donald Trump when it matters most."

Recently, Finello, an Ivyland Borough Council member and county courts solicitor, has picked up some national support for her bid to flip a House seat in a district where Hillary Clinton got more votes than Trump in 2016.

Last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Finello to its "Red to Blue" program, which supports candidates trying to defeat incumbent Republicans with funding and organizing.

"With her deep roots in Lower Bucks County and a district trending rapidly toward Democrats, momentum is on Christina’s side," said DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos. "I look forward to welcoming her to Congress next year where I know she’ll be a champion for all people in Bucks and Montgomery counties."

Clinton won the district by two percentage points in 2016. In 2018, Fitzpatrick defeated Democratic challenger Scott Wallace by a vote of 168,841 to 160,098.

But Fitzpatrick has outperformed other Republicans in the district while establishing himself as a moderate willing to vote with Democrats on some issues. The former FBI agent also holds commanding leads in fundraising and name-recognition that Finello will have to overcome if she's to win the November election.