"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- December 13, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a nationally known political analyst and TV reporter. His column appears in Patch weekly!

(Charleston, West Virginia) – Republican presidential candidates will debate on CNN from Las Vegas this coming Tuesday December 15th and – given recent events – it may just be their most important debate yet. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Trump Muslims” – It’s a dynamic race, with apparent contradictions. After Donald Trump’s announcement this week that as president he would temporarily ban any more Muslims from entering the U.S., a new CBS News poll found that 67 percent of Americans opposed the plan because it “would go against the founding principles of this country.” On the other hand, the poll showed that 54 percent of Republicans supported the Trump plan. That’s fascinating considering that most other GOP candidates acted fast to distance themselves from Trump. The party is having an internal strife, no doubt.

“Carson Bolts?” – By midweek – after the Trump-Muslim controversy – party elders were talking about a brokered convention if it looks like Trump might be the nominee. Basically it would take a coalition of the supporters from just about every other GOP candidate to join forces to “dump Trump.” Dr. Ben Carson did not take kindly to a plan that might circumvent the will of the people, and he threatened to leave the GOP if it conspires against Trump. Stay tuned!

“Cruz & Rubio Surge” – I think the two most interesting candidates to watch right now are Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX). The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has Cruz at 16 percent and Rubio at 14 percent nationwide. Both men are of Cuban descent, with broad appeal in the entire Hispanic community, particularly in their home states of Texas and Florida which are “must wins” for the GOP. Cruz is the more conservative; Rubio the more moderate. In many respects they are fishing from the same pond demographically, but not ideologically. Both poll strong in key constituencies where the GOP needs to make gains.

“Back of the Pack” – Keep an eye on some of the people who are “back in the pack.” In particular, watch Governor Christie (R-NJ) who had been polling in the weeds. Then suddenly, he received the coveted endorsement of the Manchester Union-Leader newspaper in New Hampshire. Now Christie is polling in third place in New Hampshire with 10 percent of the vote. Still, Donald Trump remains at the top in the Granite State at 27 percent, with Senator Rubio holding second with 12 percent. If nothing else, Christie could be a spoiler.

“Pre-Iowa and Pre-New Hampshire” – I mentioned the Cruz and Rubio surges, and they are for real. In the latest Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Poll, Senator Cruz is now ahead of Donald Trump in the first caucus state of Iowa, with Cruz at 25 percent and Trump at 24.3 percent. As mentioned, Rubio and Christie are suddenly making New Hampshire interesting, too.

“The ‘Also-Rans’” – The candidates at the bottom of the heap need to ramp it up Tuesday night in Las Vegas, or they will be on political life-support. Here are the lines they should use – and use often – if they want to gain traction. Jeb Bush: “I successfully ran Florida – the fourth largest state in the union – through two successful terms.” John Kasich: “The last time the United States balanced the budget, I chaired the Budget Committee in Congress, and worked the deal with Democrat President Clinton, so I can work across the aisle.” Carly Fiorina: “I am in the only candidate in either party – male or female – who has run a Fortune 500 company.” Everyone else? Time to fold your tents and go home!

“Why All of this Matters?” – To many people, Trump committed a fatal mistake with his Muslim policy this week. In fact, he did not. He remains a highly viable frontrunner. But you see other people such as Cruz and Rubio surging, and they and a few others are still viable. But Iowa and New Hampshire are the states that clear the deck. The top-three finishers in each will survive and maybe two or three others. Momentum is huge, in terms of attracting money and manpower. So this Tuesday’s debate will be a last chance for some, to stand out.

Who do you like in the Presidential race? Let us know your thoughts and predictions by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2015 Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

Photo courtesy: CBS.com