"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- November 22, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the TV stations of West Virginia Media Holdings based in Charleston, WV and is a Political Analyst for KGO Rdio 810-AM San Francisco.

(Charleston, West Virginia) – Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) dropped out of the 2016 Presidential campaign this week. Yes, that was the big headline. Seriously, it was more the implication of Jindal’s move, that’s the real headline. The poll numbers provide a harsh reality. It’s time for others to move on, too. Let’s brunch on that this week.

“Rebound” – First, let’s clear the deck on the Democratic field. Back on July 1 Hillary Clinton had a commanding 63 percent of likely primary voters. But by late October her numbers plummeted to 41 percent. Some of this was due to questions about her emails; some of it was due to the buzz over Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). But after two debates, Clinton’s numbers have shot back up to 55 percent, to 32 for Sanders, and four percent for former Governor Martin O’Malley (D-MD). Unless she tanks in Iowa or New Hampshire, she’s on her way to the nomination.

“No Dropouts Here!” – Even if Clinton has the nomination in the bag, Sanders and O’Malley will stay in the race. If nothing else, they provide foils for her to debate. She will stay in the headlines more if her nomination is still contested, even if I’s a token effort.

“Some Dropouts Across the Aisle” – Republicans don’t have the same luxury as Democrats of keeping the also-rans in the race. The GOP stage is simply too crowded. Since they are polling at less than two percent of the vote, former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), former Governor Jim Gilmore (R-VA), and former Governor George Pataki (R-NY), should all join Bobby Jindal in leaving the primary field now. That still leaves ten Republican candidates, but a leaner, more competitive race will help clear another four or five candidates by year’s end.

“Money Can’t Buy Me Love” – Here’s the problem with the size of the GOP field. In a two- hour debate, with the four lower-tier candidates, each winds up getting about 30 minutes of airtime. In a prime-time, two-hour debate with the main ten candidates, each should get an average of 12 minutes airtime. That kind of math makes no sense. For a competitive. GOP candidate to be viable, they need more airtime, not less. What will happen next is that more campaigns will simply run out of money, regardless of where the candidates are in the polls. That will likely eliminate Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ), and former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), leaving a workable eight-person field.

“Trending” – The big buzzword in politics, media and marketing today is, what’s “trending?” Much of the answer is driven by social media, in a “What’s Hot; What’s Not?” type of statistic. The reality of 2016 politics right now is that only five people have any realistic shot at the Republican nomination. In alphabetical order they are Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. Let’s examine each.

“Bush-wacked!” – At his peak in July, Jeb Bush was at 16 percent and was winning. By late September he dropped to ten percent, and is now at five percent. He’s trending down, and fast. If his name was Jeb Smith, the race would be over. But the Bush name brings money and manpower, and he is one of the only people in the field who could surge from behind and win, much like John McCain did in 2008.

“Carson City” – Dr. Ben Carson was at ten percent in July; rose to 16 percent by late September; and, is now favored by 25 percent of likely Republican voters. But his numbers have slipped in New Hampshire where he is now running third. Still, he nipping at Donald Trump’s heels and is remaining competitive.

“Fast Cruz” – Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been a real up-and-comer in the polls. He was at four percent in July; inched up to seven percent by late September and is now at 11 percent. He’s trending upward. He’s been very feisty in the debates, and he and Rubio continue to poll well in the critical Hispanic voting bloc. Cruz is one to watch!

“Marco Makes His Mark” – Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) has been steady. He started with nine percent of the vote in July and stayed there through September. But his strong debate performances have inched him up to 12 percent on the polls now, and he has surged to second place in New Hampshire and third place in Iowa. Gaining momentum in the first two states that vote could boost him even more.

“No Longer an Apprentice” – After four solid months as the frontrunner, Donald Trump is no longer a novelty candidate. His national poll numbers have slipped some, only to bounce back. His numbers are consistently strong across the board. He started at just 7 percent in July; rocketed to 24 percent by late September; and, is now at 27 percent and holding steady. And as someone who can self-fund a campaign, he’s in the race for the long haul.

“So, Where’s this Headed?” – I’m not sure, but here is a fascinating result from the latest Public Policy Polling: the only Republican who beats Hillary Clinton right now in a head-to-head matchup, is Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL). As a Latino from the key state of Florida, that will make him hard to resist in many GOP quarters where they want to win back the White House.

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© 2015, Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

Photo courtesy: CBSnews.com