Explained: The Incumbent's Advantage in SC1

As mentioned in an article assessing the race for the First Congressional District, the officeholders have an advantage over the other candidates in the race. Not only do they have a group of donors to call on, they also have ties to local party leaders. But the most important advantage may be that they have a relationship with voters. Sen. Larry Grooms, Reps. Andy Patrick, Chip Limehouse and Peter McCoy--Republicans all--had thousands of people cast votes for them less than three months ago.

Why does this matter?

There are approximately 250,000 Republican voters in SC1. Considering that turnout is predicted to be between 30 and 40 percent, which means, at best, 100,000 votes will be cast on the GOP side. Sources tell Patch that Mark Sanford is polling between 25 and 35 percent--or 25-35,000 votes--making him the frontrunner. The question then becomes, "Who will face Sanford in a run-off?"

Of the remaining candidates, there is a group of five, the aforementioned plus Teddy Turner, who are thought to be running very close to each other. They are all in the 8-14 percent range (or 8-14,000 votes in the hypothetical scenario).

So, one candidate could make the run-off with as little as 14,000 votes.

With that in mind, it's important to note that in their respective districts the incumbents received the following number of votes:

• Patrick - 13,865
• Limehouse - 13,081
• McCoy - 11,462

As a State Senator, Grooms has a larger pool of potential voters than a State Representative. 32,003 people voted for him last November.

Someone to keep in mind is Elizabeth Moffly. As a Trustee on the Charleston School Board she had 34,139 votes in 2010.

Yes, turnout was higher three months ago because it was a Presidential year. And as much as 50 percent of votes cast could have been from people who vote the straight party ticket. Nevertheless, the fact remains that thousands of people have voted for five of the candidates in the race within the past two years.

Needless to say, the person who comes closest to matching their previous totals stands the best chance to win.

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