Update: Local Officials See 'Decent Chance' of Emily Impact This Weekend

UPDATE (10:15 a.m.): Cathy S. Haynes, chief of operations, Charleston County Emergency Management Department released this statement Wednesday morning: "If this system continues on the current track the possibility of tropical threat could be late this weekend or early next week; there is a decent chance for some impact in the form of increased swells and elevated rip current risk as early as Friday."

Original story as posted:

Tropical Storm Emily is on track to cross Haiti and the Dominican Republic this evening.

The storm is predicted to drop as much as 10 inches of rain and as little as four inches of rain on Hispaniola, and then it heads to open water. That’s the critical period for Emily.

On Tuesday, the storm became better organized and it strengthened some, according to Palm Beach WPBF-TV meteorologist Mike Lyons.

“There is still some big hoops for this storm to jump through,” Lyons said in his Tuesday evening forecast. “The models keep looking better and better for Florida. They are trending east.”

But it’s really too soon to tell. Emily could turn north for a direct impact in south Florida, it could head west for the Gulf of Mexico or it could simply die off or drift into the Atlantic, forecasters predict. Most models do not show the storm making direct landfall.

Conditions in Hispaniola, with dry air and mountain peaks as high as 10,000 feet, could tear the storm apart. But if it survives, conditions beyond the island are good for hurricane strengthening.

“It is still too soon to determine if there will be direct impact on the U.S.,” writes The Weather Channel in its 11 p.m. Tuesday update. “Late this week into (the) weekend will be the critical period.”

Once the storm is back in the warm open waters, it could strengthen into a hurricane if it survives landfall in the Caribbean.

“Land interaction could disrupt Emily enough to prevent it from re-strengthening once emerging near the Bahamas,” The Weather Channel writes. “Assuming Emily survives, slow strengthening is expected as the system heads northward.”

The National Hurricane Center shows the storm brushing the coast of Florida around 8 p.m. Friday, if its path or strength isn’t disturbed by its pass over rugged Hispaniola tonight.

Haiti is most at risk currently, because more than 1 million Haitians still live in tents after the severe earthquakes in 2010. Landslides there are likely if the storm drops as much rain as predicted.