Breakthrough Knoxville Research Enables Runners to Predict Performance

As 30,000 athletes from around the world prepare to lace up for the 126th Boston Marathon on April 18, a Knoxville researcher has done the math to show how runners can achieve optimal long-distance performance: it all comes down to the number of calorie packets consumed and ability to stay on pace.

Cameron Cook’s research, which was presented at a Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) conference and featured in SIAM News, has yielded the first mathematical model to examine the effects of nutritional supplements on long-distance running. Cook holds a PhD in mathematics and is a recent graduate of University of Tennessee, where he coached the running club and was a SIAM Student Chapter officer. He found that focusing on pace and energy — how a runner’s speed should vary throughout a race and how much sugar the average well-trained runner needs to consume while running — can improve overall race time.

“The best strategy to run your optimal race is to maintain a constant pace and take in the right amount of calories at regular intervals,” said Cook, who currently works as a health economist at nonprofit Research Triangle Institute International. “These are two facts that running communities have always observed, and now we have scientific evidence to show that it works.”

Cook’s model is novel because it includes two energy sources — fat and glycogen — as well as speed; it also accounts for both nutrition gain as runners consume gel packets at stations throughout a race course and nutrition loss due to basic bodily functions. By considering all possible combinations of runner speeds at each time step of a race—constrained by their ability to store energy—and comparing several different fuel intake scenarios, the model shows that consuming a set amount of gel packets at specific times will improve a runner’s performance. It also demonstrates that a runner achieves their optimal time when their pace fluctuates as little as possible from start to finish.

Cook’s model relies on parameters such as a runner’s weight, maximum oxygen uptake (based on a reading provided by most sports watches), nutrition uptake rate, and lactate threshold to calculate their optimal pace and the amount of nutrition that they should consume. It then generates a graph to visually depict the results. To validate his approach, Cook simulated Eliud Kipchoge’s world-record-breaking marathon—a known optimal race—and was “astounded” when his model was off by only one second per mile.

“To get results that precise means that this is something we can actually use to help runners predict their performances and achieve their optimal times,” said Cook, an avid marathoner who envisions the model forming the basis of a smartphone app for runners in the future.

For now, Cook is serving as his own test subject. Last year, he shaved minutes off of his own personal best time and completed the Indianapolis Marathon in two hours, 37 minutes, and 14 seconds due in part to the fact that he knew his optimal nutrition strategy was to consume five 100-calorie packets.

Based on his research findings, Cook has the following tips for athletes competing in Boston later this month:

Start your nutrition early in the race, take it often and with water: If you start consuming gel packets when your body already feels bad, you won’t process the sugar as well and therefore won’t get the maximum energy benefit. And if you don’t take the packets with water, you create an imbalance in your stomach and your body will pull water from elsewhere. This leads to an upset stomach, “like a kid eating too much candy on Halloween,” Cook said.

Include nutrition in your training regimen: Cook found that prepping your body to handle nutrition is just as important as pace training. The goal is to train your stomach to accommodate the recommended sugar intake ahead of time so that you’ll be able to convert it into energy on race day. “If I’m going out for a 20-mile run in training and my plan is to take five gel packets during the race, I’ll probably take four on that run to simulate the exact same experience,” he explained.

Control your pace: The goal of a marathon is to travel the distance in the shortest amount of time, but that doesn’t mean you should get a head start, Cook said. Because the Boston Marathon begins with a downhill route, it will be particularly important for marathoners to focus on maintaining a steady pace. Cook’s research clearly shows that large fluctuations in pace are a detriment to achieving an optimal time.

Carb loading is important, but it doesn’t have to be pasta: Cook’s study underscored the importance of arriving at the start line of a race with your body’s glycogen storage at full capacity, which means that you'll need to start filling up with carbs and sugars the day before. However, Cook noted that there are other choices in addition to pasta, including a combination of chicken, rice, and vegetables or steak, fries, and salad.

More information about Cook’s model is available at https://sinews.siam.org/Details-Page/optimization-techniques-influence-nutrition-strategies-for-marathon-runners.