Summer Weather Forecast For Montgomery County: Prepare For Heat

CONROE, TX — With the official start of summer just weeks away, planning has begun for Montgomery County residents who look forward to the warmer weather and increased opportunity for outdoor fun.

Specific, long-term weather predictions can help with that planning, and the private weather company AccuWeather has released its 2021 summer weather forecast.

Daily forecasts for Conroe are listed until early August. After that, AccuWeather lists the historical average temperature for the rest of the summer.

AccuWeather estimates 58 days of temperatures above 90 degrees through Aug. 5, including a streak of 54 consecutive days at the end of that forecast range beginning June 13. The historical average temperature for most of the remaining days in August is between 94 and 95 degrees with a low average of 92 degrees on Aug. 31.

The summer forecast predicts 23 days with rainfall in June and July, including a stretch of six out seven days from June 23-29 and a similar stretch between July 2-8.

Regionally, the Southeast United States is shaping up for another busy tropical storm season, though perhaps not as severe as 2020. Accuweather estimates between 16 and 20 named storms, which includes seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five direct hits on the United States for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. All three ranges are slightly above an average hurricane season.

The central Gulf Coast could see a slight reprieve from 2020 as conditions in the Gulf look prime to push storms toward Mexico and South Texas, according to Paul Pastelok, who leads AccuWeather’s long-range forecasting team. Pastolek warned that doesn’t mean a storm won’t make landfall between Southeast Texas and Florida, but that the chances are less than in 2020.

Nationally, AccuWeather predicts an eventful summer similar to the 2020 season, which brought record-breaking deaths and damage in the form of wildfires and hurricanes.

Meteorologists are also expecting the return of derechos, a weather phenomenon sometimes referred to as an “inland hurricane.” The term became more widely known about last summer when one swept through Iowa with winds faster than 100 miles per hour on August 10.

“We are still very nervous about the possibility of derechos developing based on the pattern that we’re forecasting” Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s chief long-range forecaster, said in a statement.

This year, the most extreme weather is expected in the early fall, Pastelok added.

Although the number of tropical storms is predicted to be down from recent years, AccuWeather says tornadoes are likely to be on the rise from May until July.

Pastelok said anywhere from 1,300 to 1,400 tornadoes could be reported by the end of the year, a slight increase from 2020.

“Across the Plains, we’re still going to be watching for the possibility of a flare-up of storms, mainly central areas on north during the month of May, June and early July,” Pastelok said in a statement.

These storms are expected to extend farther east than normal, Pastelok added, due to drought conditions that range from Montana to the Texas Panhandle.