Models Continue To Project Louisiana Landfall For Expected Hurricane

HOUSTON, TX — Tropical Depression Nine has developed into Tropical Storm Ida as it continues to strengthen on its northwestern path in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to become a tropical storm Thursday night, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to NHC's 4 p.m. update, the storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving northwest at 14 mph. Tropical Storm Ida is expected in the Cayman Islands tonight and in western parts of Cuba on Friday. Shortly after it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to strengthen into a hurricane, according to NHC.

Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands and parts of western Cuba at 10 a.m., and NHC indicated that warnings could be coming as soon as Thursday night for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

NHC projections from Thursday morning indicated a storm track with an expected landfall in Louisiana. In its 4 p.m. update, NHC maintained a track headed for Louisiana but one that was shifted east.

If the storm follows the projection, its impact in Southeast Texas could be minimal, according to the National Weather Service Houston.

"What's changed over the last 12 to 24 hours is we've got more model agreement now suggesting a Louisiana landfall," National Weather Service Houston Warning Coordination Meteorologist Dan Reilly said in a video brief Thursday morning. "This time yesterday, there was a lot of uncertainty ... but there is more agreement now in a Louisiana track. There is still some uncertainty as the storm is just forming now."

Reilly added a Louisiana track would mean less severe impacts for the Southeast Texas coast. Even outside a direct hit from the system, Southeast Texas will likely experience strong rip currents and elevated wave heights this weekend. Significant rainfall also is likely, with models predicting 1-3 inches for the Southeast Texas coast, extending toward Houston, if the storm stays on a Louisiana track.

Residents from areas with potential impact, including Houston, should ensure they have a hurricane preparedness plan and kit. According to NWS, hurricane preparedness kits should have at least three days' worth of supplies, including food and water, medicine and prescriptions, a radio, batteries and phone chargers. NWS recommends ensuring cars are full of gas and that there is cash on hand.