6 Ways Donald Trump Could Fail to Reach the Oval Office

According to nearly all recent accounts, Donald Trump’s campaign is in turmoil. After a disquieting Republican National Convention, followed by a much more polished Democratic National Convention, Trump has sunk in the polls and began feuding with major party figures.

Officials and experts have so far denied any efforts to replace the candidate as the party's nominee.

"That would be unprecedented and I dare say the RNC is not in reality looking at this possibility," said Josh Putnam, a political scientist specializing in elections at the University of Georgia.

But there are still many avenues for the party to be rid of Trump. Here's how it could happen:

1. Hillary Clinton wins the election

This one is pretty self-explanatory.

2. Maybe Trump drops out

Since there’s no mechanism in the committee’s rules to kick Trump off the ticket, the most likely way Trump won't make it to election day is that he could give up his candidacy on his own. If Trump were to voluntarily withdraw from the election, leaders in the RNC could vote to fill the vacancy or reconvene the convention delegates to select someone else.

After that, the party members will vote in successive rounds until a majority agrees on a new candidate.

Is this likely? It seems doubtful. Trump is nothing if not prideful, and with so many voters still offering vigorous support and an apparent immunity from personal shame, there’s little reason to expect him to drop out.

This possibility is not entirely outlandish, though — Trump did once suggest he wasn’t sure if he’d take the presidency once elected.

“I’ll let you know how I feel about it after it happens,” he told the New York Times in July about the possibility of quitting on Nov. 9.

Making this work for the Republican party, though, would be very difficult.

"Once you have officially received the nomination, it triggers all kinds of legal thresholds with the federal election commission," explained Gary Nordlinger, president of political consulting firm Nordlinger Associates. This means turning back the clock on the Trump nomination gets increasingly far-fetched by the day.

In Texas, for example, the last day to withdraw a name from the general election ballot is Aug. 26.

3. Wait until after the election

If Trump doesn’t really want to be president — if he’s just running for the thrill — a savvy Republican establishment may have another option. It could convince Trump to finish the race until Election Day but then decline the presidency before the Electoral College votes. If a party’s ticket wins the election, but the candidate subsequently drops out, the party could nominate someone else to take the candidate's spot and be approved by the Electoral College, according to historian John Buescher.

It’s not clear how well this would be received, especially if the public found out that the whole thing had been planned in advance.

4. The electoral college could overturn the voters' choice

If Trump wins the election and doesn’t drop out, he still needs the Electoral College to approve him. One potential elector for the Republican Party in Georgia has suggested he might not vote for Trump. However, he has since resigned.

While about half the states have laws requiring electors to vote in line with their state’s selection, the other half do not have such laws (Virginia’s statute is unclear). Georgia is one of the states whose electors are legally unbound.

It’s highly unlikely the electors would turn against Trump and vote for someone else. Although a few past electors did not vote as they were expected to, as Andrew Prokop of Vox noted, it never affected the final outcome.

Trying to stage an Electoral College coup is almost unimaginable. Of all these Trump alternatives, this option is most likely to completely unravel political order and lead to violence in the streets. Given an evenly divided Supreme Court, any potential challenge to the constitutional legitimacy of the presidency could lead to nationwide crisis.

Even if the Republican Party is terrified of Trump, taking this option would probably be more disastrous. It would be like burning down your house because a tree fell on it.

5. The GOP could support a third-party or write-in candidate

More cautiously, the Republican leadership could simply un-endorse Trump and back either a write-in candidate or a third-party candidate.

But much of Trump’s fan base is extremely dissatisfied with the GOP establishment and would likely remain loyal to him. Even a strong surge of support for a third party would, in nearly every conceivable scenario, split conservative voters and hand the election to the Democrats.

If the Republican leaders want, they can also just choose not to spend on the presidential race, and focus on lower-level races with more establishment-friendly candidates.

"From every appearance, it looks like he’s depending on the party resources to do his voter ID and turnout efforts," said Nordlinger. If the party stopped supporting him financially, his chances of winning would plummet.

6. The Hail Mary: Change the rules mid-game

Could the Republican Party change its rules to take the nomination away from Trump? It’s theoretically possible, since parties are technically independent organizations that are free to organize as they choose. There is some prior, if limited, precedent for changing the rules outside of conventions, Putnam, from the University of Georgia, explained to Patch.

In both 2008 and 2012, rules changes were permitted between conventions, but the changes were largely procedural. More importantly, the full committee would have to vote on any changes with a three-fourths majority.

"It is hugely unlikely that there is enough consensus behind a rules change to reach that super majority level," Putnam said.

Some have suggested that current rules allow the RNC to remove Trump if they choose, citing the use of the word “otherwise” in the following rule:

The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination or otherwise of the Republican candidate for president of the United States …

However, this rule only refers to filling the presidential candidate's slot if it were to be vacated by death, resignation or other unspecified means (such as incapacitation or alien abduction); it does not give the RNC the authority to force Trump out any way it pleases, at least not without a change to the rules.

Nordlinger agreed that there was almost no chance a rule change could happen. "Trying to force him out is virtually impossible," he said.

Bu even if it were possible, changing the rules would again alienate many of Trump’s supporters. This alone could tear the party apart.

The key conclusion here is simple: If the RNC wants to sabotage Trump, it almost certainly has the ability. But nearly any method of doing so would most plausibly either hand the race over to complete chaos or Clinton.

Unless they decide it’s worth letting her win, Republicans will stick by their candidate.

Photo credit: Michael Vadon via Wikimedia Commons