Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Many Americans May Not Vote At All

For a presidential election that's in many ways unprecedented — with the first female candidate at the top of a major party's ticket and an opponent with absolutely no governing experience — Americans are showing relatively little interest.

According to a new report from the polling company Gallup published Monday, American adults are rating themselves less likely to cast their ballots for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in the upcoming election than they have for previous contenders at this point in the last four elections. However, it's important to note that these findings were reported before Monday night's presidential debate, which experts believe may have been the most-watched presidential debate ever; it's possible this event could affect respondents' answers.

Only 69 percent of Americans chose "10" on a 10-point scale of their likelihood of voting on Nov. 8, indicating they will "definitely" make it to the polls.

This number is lower than any election year since 2000, when 74 percent said they would definitely vote. In 2008, that number was 80 percent, and it was 76 percent in 2012, according to Gallup.

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"These figures could change between now and Election Day," Lydia Saad notes in Gallup's article on the poll. "However, while the percentage giving quite a lot of thought to the election usually increases by several percentage points between September and November, the percentage rating their likelihood of voting a '10' typically does not."

It's also important to know that these predictive figures almost certainly overstate actual voter turnout. Despite 76 percent of respondents telling Gallup they will "definitely" vote in 2012, only 57.5 percent actually made it to the polls.

Does the likelihood of low turnout hurt one candidate more than the other?

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they will definitely vote by a wide margin — 76 percent to 65 percent. However, there are somewhat more Democrats than Republicans nationwide, and President Obama won in 2012 even with a similar gap in predicted voting behavior between the two parties.

One demographic factor almost certain to hurt Clinton's prospects, Saad notes, is depressed youth turnout. Only 47 percent of adults between the ages of 18 and 34 say they will definitely vote, compared to 58 percent in 2012. There's been almost no decline in the predicted voting behavior of those aged 55 and up, who typically vote for more conservative candidates on average.

Saad notes that the lack of interest from the younger cohort may be explained by "Clinton's difficulty in winning over the young adults who were much more favorable toward Bernie Sanders than toward her when Sanders was running for the Democratic nomination."

There's a rather obvious explanation for the results overall: Both candidates are seen more unfavorably than favorably by majorities of the country. Clinton is the second most unpopular major party nominee in modern history by this metric; Trump is the most unpopular candidate since pollsters have asked such questions.

Whoever wins, he or she will almost certainly enter office underwater in his or her standing with the American people and with a likely underwhelming voter turnout.

Photo credit: Pete Souza via Wikimedia Commons