Donald Trump Leading -- But Also Trailing -- GOP Field Nationally

A new national poll released Thursday showed Donald Trump holding a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination, less than 24 hours after a different, national poll showed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holding a slight lead over the real estate mogul.

The CBS News poll, published Thursday morning, showed Trump polling at 35 percent, with Cruz at 18 percent, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 11 percent. The poll’s 5-percent margin of error still would put Trump well ahead of Cruz.

The poll released Wednesday by NBC and the Wall Street Journal had Cruz in the lead at 28 percent and Trump at 26. Its 4.9-percent margin of error means the two candidates are essentially in a statistical tie — a big departure from recent national polls that have largely shown Trump leading by double digits.

Trump spent Thursday morning, naturally, bashing the poll that had him trailing.

The polls have two key differences.

First, while Trump calls the CBS poll “new,” (it did come out after the NBC poll, after all) the CBS poll actually shows an older opinion.

CBS polled 581 Republican primary voters from February 12-16, while NBC’s polling of 400 primary voters lasted from February 14-16.

The South Carolina debate was held February 13, where some experts said Trump turned in his poorest performance of the primary debates.

“It’s not yet clear whether the NBC/WSJ poll was an outlier, or if Trump’s support has waned after the most recent GOP debate,” Politico’s Nick Gass wrote.

Second, NBC said its poll was weighted heavily toward “very conservative” Republican voters. But when re-weighted “to reflect the ideological composition from last month,” NBC said its poll would have Trump ahead by 1 point — a dead heat within the margin of error but still a big shift from many recent national polls.

NBC’s pollster, Bill McInturff, said the NBC numbers could represent a “pause,” as voters re-consider their Trump support.

“When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign,” McInturff said. “What you don’t know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary ‘pause’ before the numbers snap back into place.”

Cruz edged out Trump by 3.3 percent in the Iowa caucuses, while Trump turned in a commanding victory in New Hampshire, beating Kasich by nearly 20 points and Cruz by 24.

The South Carolina primary will be held Saturday, where Trump currently holds double-digit leads in every major statewide poll.

Photos of Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons