How A Strong El Niño Winter Could Affect Americans’ Heating Bills

ACROSS AMERICA — Americans who heat their homes with natural gas can expect to pay less this winter than last, according to a new winter fuels forecast released Wednesday by the government.

The projection from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is driven by the supply and demand for winter heating fuels and inventories but also is influenced by weather and climate. Various winter weather outlooks say a strong El Niño climate pattern this winter could bring more snow to parts of the country, but it could also keep temperatures mild.

The average demand for heating fuels exceeds supplies, but both gas and propane inventories were above five-year averages going into winters, the Energy Information Administration said, but inventories of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, were “well below” average.

Americans who heat their homes with oil will pay about 8 percent more this winter, or an average of about $1,851 over the five month period from November through March, the report said.

Natural gas prices are about 40 percent lower than at this time last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its report. Electricity and propane prices are expected to remain stable, but people who use heating oil, which is used extensively in the Northeast, are expected to pay more.

The approximately 60.1 million households nationwide that burn natural gas as their primary source of healing fuel can expect to pay an average of about $601 to heat their homes this winter. That's down about 21 percent from last winter, the EIA projected.

The El Niño effect is good news for people living in the western U.S., where temperatures are expected to be warmer this winter than last, when temperatures were much colder than usual. They should pay less overall, regardless of the type of fuel they use.

How El Niño winters play out is notoriously difficult to forecast, but the U.S. Cliamte Prediction Center expects drier- and warmer-than-normal conditions from the Pac ific Northwest to the northern Plains to the Great Lakes to New England.

Coastal storms moving along the Eastern Seabord can greatly influence winters with or without an El Niño. A strong El Niño year can bring above-average snowfall to the region.