NOAA's 2016 Winter Forecast: Hot, Dry In South; Cold, Wet Up North

The Northwestern and Midwestern United States should get ready for a cooler and snowier winter than normal, while the Southern states will likely be more wet and dry, according to the latest winter outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA is basing its predictions on the strong chance of La Niña, a climate pattern caused by cooling waters in the Pacific Ocean, beginning in the late fall and persisting into the winter.

The NOAA's outlook doesn't try to predict exactly when and where it will snow or rain — as forecasts by publications such as The Farmers' Almanac tend to do. Rather, NOAA issues what it feels are the chances that the winter will be colder or wetter than usual.

"This seasonal outlook does not project where and when snowstorms may hit or provide total seasonal snowfall accumulations," the outlook says. "Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. However, La Niña winters tend to favor above average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies and below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic."

More specifically, here are the odds NOAA is giving on temperature:

• The southern United States has a 33 percent to 60 percent chance of the weather being warmer than usual, along with parts of northern New England.
• From Montana to western Michigan, temperatures have a 33 or 40 percent chance of being cooler than usual.
• The rest of America — from the Pacific Northwest, down through the heartland states and across to the beltway and southern New England — have an "equal chance" to have above, below or average winter temperatures.

And here are those odds about participation:

• Southwestern states across to the Southeast have at least a 33 percent chance of a drier winter and more than 50 percent in southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast.
• The Pacific Northwest up into northern Minnesota and across the Great Lakes have at least a 33 percent, and in some cases 40 percent, chance of a wetter winter.
• The rest of the country has "equal chances" of wetter, drier or an average season.

See the maps at the top of the page for more information.

“This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms,” Mike Halpert, deputy director of the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a press release.

“Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”

Read the NOAA's full announcement here.

Image via Metropolitan Transit Authority, Flickr, used under Creative Commons