Thanksgiving Dinner Is Pricier In 2022; There Are Ways To Cut Costs

ACROSS AMERICA — Smart cooks are shopping early and looking for deals as they assemble everything they need to prepare and serve a traditional Thanksgiving feast that will cost about 13.5 percent more than last year.

The market research firm IRI puts the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 at about $60.50, up from last year’s average cost of $53.31. That’s driven by hot inflation, supply chain issues, a widespread bird flu outbreak and the war in Ukraine.

The percentage of increase is based on Thanksgiving 2021 cost estimates based on an American Farm Bureau survey that showed the cost of the holiday dinner for 10 had increased 14 percent from 2020. The Farm Bureau, an insurance and lobbying group, is expected to release its 2022 survey later this month.

Turkey Prices Coming Down

There is some good news.

Higher turkey prices, up by as much as 73 percent from a year earlier, are falling just as dramatically. Whole frozen turkeys that were costing $1.99 a pound now cost 96 cents a pound, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Turkeys will still cost about 8 percent more, but the rate of increase is easier for many households to absorb. There are a couple of reasons the estimate was adjusted.

First, the avian flu outbreak that decimated turkey populations and caused a shortage of turkeys big enough to feed a large gathering appears to have dropped off now that waterfowl are completing their fall migrations. Wild birds don’t get sick with bird flu, but do carry the infection and spread it to domestic birds in their droppings.

Second, there’s what some analysts are calling “the Walmart effect.” The retail giant rolled back prices of turkey and other Thanksgiving essentials to 2021 levels, prompting the discount grocer Aldi and regional chain Lidl to make similar adjustments.

Everything Else Is Going Up

The IRI survey found that despite the higher costs, the Thanksgiving celebration is back this year after pulling back during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some 38 percent said they expect their grocery bills to be higher, but they’ll still buy the same amount of food.

Americans 40 and younger are especially worried their Thanksgiving tables will look lean this year.

About 23 percent of millennials and Gen X consumers, compared to 10 percent of those older than 40, worry inflation makes traditional holiday celebrations unaffordable. Another 18 percent planned to start shopping early, and 33 percent said they would be looking for deals before the holiday week.

Consumers are looking at double-digit price increases on much of what they need to complete the feast.

For example, butter costs 34.2 percent more than it did a year ago, according to the IRI research. Fresh potatoes cost 24.4 percent more. Cranberry sauce is up 23.9 percent.

More broadly, key ingredients for baking are up 11.1 percent; beverage costs are up 5.8 percent; meat costs are up 8.1 percent; sides are up 18.8 percent; and pies are up 20.3 percent, according to the IRI survey.

Take The ‘Shrinkflation’ Approach

But there are ways to save money.

Don’t be afraid to adjust the menu to fit your budget. In some families, mashed potatoes are a Thanksgiving essential. Fresh yams or sweet potatoes may be an alternative. They’re up only 2.4 percent year over year.

Check your pantry before you go to the grocery store. Do you already have on hand the broth, soups, canned green beans and other items you’ll need? If you use what you have on hand, you may find some room in your budget to allow some of the items that increased sharply over the past year.

Think “shrinkflation,” a tool food manufacturers use to raise prices on the sly without actually saying so.

“For Thanksgiving, we can do the same thing. Get a turkey that’s a little smaller. Maybe have a few less potatoes. Instead of having two pies, have one pie,” Joe Redden, a Carlson School of Management professor at the University of Minnesota, recently told the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

“At least for me, it’s rare to say after a Thanksgiving meal that there wasn’t enough food or ‘I’m still hungry,’ ” Redden said.

Be Mindful Of Food Waste

Also, if you serve green bean casserole every year because it’s a tradition, but people don’t eat it, lop that off the menu this year.

One of the best ways to save money is to “make fewer of the side dishes that often wind up in the trash a week later,” Meredith Deeds, an Edina, Minnesota, cookbook author, told the Star Tribune.

Americans throw away $240 billion worth of food every year — 39.1 percent of what they bring home from the grocery store, according to a study published two years ago in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. The most wasteful behaviors were found among people with healthier diets and higher incomes.

Shop Early For Deals

When you do your Thanksgiving grocery shopping is important, too. If you can manage it, go to the grocery store or place orders for delivery in the middle of this week.

Buy perishable items as far ahead of Thanksgiving as feasible, the grocery pickup and delivery service Instacart advised, noting that “starting early also allows you to take advantage of more deals.”