Total Solar Eclipse Forecast Suggests El Niño Could Affect Cloud Cover

ACROSS AMERICA — The 2024 Great American Eclipse is still a few weeks away, but an early forecast suggests generally favorble cloud coverin large swaths of the path of totality for the April 8 party of a lifetime.

But anything can change, AccuWeather said in its early eclipse forecast, especially with a weakening El Niño climate pattern, according to the private weather company’s senior meteorologist, Paul Pastelok.

People in a narrow band of states from Texas to Maine are in the path of totality for the total solar eclipse, but every state in the continental U.S. will see the skies dim to some extent when the moon passes between the sun and Earth.

In its early forecast for the astronomical event of the decade, AccuWeather said Southern Texas and parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes have the best chances of favorable weather. The odds of cloudy weather are slightly higher in the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, and some areas of the Northeast could be in for a letdown with a high probability of cloud coverage.

Factors such as the specific timing of the eclipse or developing weather systems could play out in the first half of April and affect the visibility of the spectacle anticipated by millions of people.

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“There is a good possibility that a cold front will be moving across central and eastern U.S. near this time of the eclipse,” Pastelok said. “The exact location of this front could be the difference between a cloud-filled and a cloud-free sky. Additionally, there is the risk of a slow-moving storm system over the Southeast during April.”

If either one of those systems forms, cloud cover could last longer and lead to poor viewing conditions, Patelok added.

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The gradual weakening of El Niño climate pattern was also a factor in the eclipse forecast and “could continue to produce an active weather pattern across the nation around the time of the eclipse,” Pastelok said.

The AccuWeather eclipse forecast is based on long-term historical average cloud cover data used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as AccuWeather’s long-range forecasting data.

• Related: 2024 Great American Eclipse: What You Need To Know

AccuWeather plans to update its forecast as April 8 approaches.