Triple-Dip La Niña Is Ending, NOAA Says; Will It Flip To An El Niño?

ACROSS AMERICA — After three years, the La Niña weather phenomenon that worsened drought conditions and increased hurricane activity in Atlantic states has ended, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

The end of the unprecedented “triple dip” La Niña is generally good news, especially in states prone to wildfires and agricultural states. Record drought gripped much of the United States in 2022, according to NOAA.

If the pattern flips to an El Niño pattern, which scientists think could happen this summer or fall, more frequent rains could be more beneficial.

The La Niña climate pattern is a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States and around the world, especially during late fall, winter and early spring. It is the opposite to the more famous El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is warmer than average.

Scientists said the planet is now experiencing a “neutral” condition that should continue through spring. The lack of either a La Niña or El Niño means there will be no seasonal-scale influence from the Pacific Ocean to push around the global atmospheric circulation and influence seasonal climate patterns.

“It’s over,” research scientist Azhar Ehsan, who heads Columbia University’s El Niño/La Niña forecast office, told The Associated Press. “Mother Nature thought to get rid of this one because it’s enough.”

Neutral or El Niño conditions make it harder for storms to form, but not impossible, according to scientists. Over the past three years, the Atlantic and Gulf coasts have been battered by 14 hurricanes and tropical storms causing $1 billion or more in damage, totaling $252 billion in costs, NOAA economist and meteorologist Adam Smith told the AP, noting that both La Niña and development by people in hurricane prone areas were factors.

Human-caused warming is like an escalator going up: It makes temperatures increase and extremes worse, while La Niña and El Niño are like jumping up and down on the escalator, according to Northern Illinois University atmospheric sciences professor Victor Gensini.

La Niña has also slightly dampened global average temperatures, keeping warming from breaking annual temperature records, while El Niño slightly turbocharges those temperatures, often setting records, scientists said.

This particular La Niña, which started in September 2020 but is considered three years old because it affected three different winters, was unusual and one of the longest on record. It took a brief break in 2021 but came roaring back with record intensity.

Without an El Niño or La Niña, forecasters have a harder time predicting seasonal weather trends for summer or fall because the Pacific Ocean has such a big footprint in weeks-long forecasts.

El Niño spring forecasts are generally less reliable than ones made at other times of the year, but climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Niño/La Niña forecast office, said there’s a 60 percent chance that El Niño will take charge in the fall.

There’s also a 5 percent chance La Niña will return for an unprecedented fourth dip. L’Heureux said she really doesn’t want that, but the scientist in her would find that interesting.

The Associated Press contributed reporting.