With ‘Triple-Dip La Niña,’ How Much Will It Snow This Winter?

ACROSS AMERICA — Depending on where they live, Americans who love snow could bet more than they bargained for or be hugely disappointed, according to AccuWeather’s 2022-23 winter forecast.

The northern tier of U.S. states look to be in for a snowy winter, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok, but snow shovels and snow blowers may not get as big a workout.

There’s a big caveat, though — “a triple dip La Niña,” or the third consecutive winter the La Niña will shape weather patterns across the year. A La Niña occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures near the equator are cooler than normal, influencing the jet stream and overall weather patterns in North America.

But that doesn’t mean last winter’s weather will be repeated this time around. No two La Niña winters are the same, Pastelok pointed out in a story on the AccuWeather website, and that makes forecasting “very tricky.”

He said the weather setup for winter is one of the most complicated and dynamic in recent memory due to all the weather factors that could come into play as the first day of winter — Dec. 21, with the arrival of the winter solstice.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters analyzed computer models, looked at previous winters and used their own personal experience to determine if it will be a snowy winter, if and when the polar vortex will whip up Arctic air, and whether it will be a good season for skiers.

Here’s how it’s shaping up for six major cities:

• New York City: 18-23 inches (average snowfall is 29.8 inches), compared with 17.9 inches last winter;
• Philadelphia: 14-20 inches (average snowfall is 23.1 inches), compared with 12.9 inches last winter;
• Boston: 40-50 inches (average snowfall is 49.2 inches), compared with 54 inches last winter;
• Washington, D.C.: 6-10 inches (average snowfall is 13.7 inches), compared with 13.2 inches last winter;
• Pittsburgh: 40-50 inches (average snowfall is 44.1 inches), compared with 43.4 inches last winter; and
• Chicago: 35-40 inches (average snowfall is 38.4 inches), compared with 32.8 inches last winter.

Outside of northern tier states where lots of snow is expected, here’s a thumbnail of what could be in store for other regions of the country:

New England: This typically snowy region of the country is one of the few areas outside the Rocky Mountains where snowfall could be above normal, and it could be boosted by a few nor’easters, especially in January and March.

Southeast: Winter should be mild, but the final stretch of the hurricane season could be active with warm water off the Atlantic seaboard and Gulf coasts. Heavy rain into the Tennessee Valley could be a problem, too.

Northeast and Midwest: Early-season snow is likely, but overall, forecasters expect mild temperatures in the middle part of the season will limit the frequency of snow. Precipitation could be above normal with a few all-rainfall events. Less prolific lake-effect snow is expected in places like the eastern Great Lakes around Buffalo, New York; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Cleveland, Ohio. Farther west, near- to above-normal lake-effect snow is expected.

Plains: Temperatures will be a bit above normal in Central Plains states Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and Colorado, but cold could settle in when the calendar turns over to 2023. The Northern Plains, especially could see feel-like temperatures of 50 degrees below zero with the arrival of brutally cold Arctic air, especially in February.

West Coast: Weather patterns are shaping up much as they have for the past two years, but forecasters expect differences in the primary storm track to veer farther north, meaning the drought conditions affecting about three-fourths of the region will persist in parts of California, Nevada and the Southwest. That doesn’t mean Washington, Oregon and Colorado will see non-stop storms, though. Western Canada is expected to be affected the most. The Cascades and Rockies should be a good choice.