Tropical Storm Joaquin Now A Hurricane, Takes Aim At East Coast

UPDATE, 8:20 a.m. Wednesday: The tropical storm has been upgraded to Hurricane Joaquin, and at least one forecast model shows the storm hitting landfall around North Carolina and Maryland. This story will be updated.

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A tropical storm continued to churn Tuesday in the Atlantic Ocean and could become a hurricane by Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

Tropical Storm Joaquin’s maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 65 miles per hour Tuesday afternoon.

“Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,” the National Weather Service said. “And Joaquin could become a hurricane on Wednesday.”

To reach hurricane status, wind speeds need to hit a sustained 74 miles per hour, just a nine-mile-per-hour increase from Joaquin’s current strength.

The storm was spinning Tuesday afternoon toward the Bahamas, but the National Weather Service expects it to cut north Friday.

Initial projections had the storm touching the Southeast United States, but that forecast was later changed to show its path scraping the Eastern tip of North Carolina by Sunday afternoon.

Forecasters now have the storm missing the coast entirely, but they warn that Joaquin is a particularly difficult storm to predict and coastal residents should keep a close eye on forecasts.

And for the rest of the East Coast farther North? It’s still too early to call, though there are no coastal watches or warnings currently in effect.

Even if it doesn’t strike the coast, it will still have noticeable weather effects.

“Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Joaquin’s path, portions of the East Coast will still see multiple impacts from the evolving large-scale weather pattern, including flooding rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding,” the Weather Channel says.

The Weather Channel described Joaquin as a “difficult forecast,” with four different weather patterns making life tough for forecasters.

Here are the current elements influencing the storm, according to the Weather Channel:

• A cold front near the East Coast
• Remnants of Tropical Storm Ida in the Southeast Atlantic
• High pressure over the North Atlantic
• Low pressure approaching the Southeast

“Joaquin’s future depends critically on the position and relative strength of those players,” the Weather Channel says. “Not to mention its own strength, which is currently being limited by strong wind shear that’s keeping most of its thunderstorm activity south of its center of circulation.”

Image via National Weather Service