California Wildfires: How Climate Change Could Make The Problem Worse

NAPA VALLEY, CA — As tens of thousands of acres of woodland burn in Napa and Sonoma Counties, new research published Monday revealed dire predictions that climate change's effects threaten to leave California more vulnerable to wildfires and droughts than previously known.

More dangerous wildfires and longer spells of drought have long been predicted among the many devastating impacts of climate change. Research published last year has borne out these predictions, finding that about half the increase in damage from wildfires since the 1970s could be attributed to climate change.

“People tell me that they’ve never seen fires as active as what they’re battling right now,” A. Park Williams, one of the authors of a paper showing the ties between fire and climate change, told The New York Times. “What we’re seeing in (the) fire world is much different than what we saw in the 1980s, and in the 2030s, fires will be unrecognizable to what we’re seeing now.”

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On Monday, a new paper published in the journal Nature had an even more grim prediction for California, specifically. While previous climate change models suggested the state could become drier due to a shift in the pattern of rainfall, new data revealed that much of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico will simply get less precipitation overall in the coming years.

Less rain means more droughts. It also means more wildfires.

"Monsoon rains are critical for the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, yet the fate of the North American monsoon is quite uncertain," said Salvatore Pascale, an associate research scholar at Princeton University and the lead author on the paper. "The future of the monsoon will have direct impacts on agriculture, on livelihoods."

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The North American monsoons had been predicted to shift later in the season, with lessening precipitation in the Southwest in July, and increasing rainfall in September and October. While this shift could be disruptive, the total amount of rainfall was expected to remain about the same.

But using new estimates that take into account shifting sea water temperatures, Pascale and his team now believe that the North American monsoon will bring less rain to the continent, leaving California drier and more prone to drought. The authors warn that the American Southwest must prepare.

"This study ... highlights what we need to do to improve models for the North American monsoon and understanding water in the southwest," Pascale said.

"Water infrastructure projects take years to a decade to plan and build and can last decades," said Sarah Kapnick, another of the paper's. "They require knowledge of future climate ... to ensure water supply in dry years."

The research, however, is not definitive. Just as the new papers build on previous understandings of the future of rainfall patterns, other research may alter the most recent predictions. However, the researchers hope that their work incorporating the impact of sea water temperatures will add to our understanding of the coming changes.

"We are not saying, 'We are sure that this is what will be,' but we wanted to point out some mechanisms which are key, and have to be taken into account in future research on the North American monsoon," Pascale said. "This is a difficult region, so future research will point out if we were right, and to what extent."

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