Obamacare 'Repeal' CBO Score Dooms Graham-Cassidy Bill

WASHINGTON, DC — Millions fewer people would have comprehensive health insurance coverage if the Graham-Cassidy bill passed, the Congressional Budget Office, also known as the CBO, said Monday. As soon as the office released its report, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine announced that she was opposed to the bill, and on Tuesday Republican leadership said the bill would not come up for a vote this week, according to multiple reports.

Graham-Cassidy is the most recent of the Republican's many attempts to overhaul Obamacare.

"The number of people with comprehensive health insurance that covers high-cost medical events would be reduced by millions compared with the baseline projections for each year during the decade," the CBO said. "That number could vary widely depending on how states implemented the legislation, although the direction of the effect is clear."

Republicans need 50 senators to support the bill for it to pass. With Collins opposing the bill, and Sens. Rand Paul and John McCain also explicitly against it, the GOP did not have the votes to pass the bill. Since the special measure the GOP has used to pass the bill expires Saturday, Sept. 30, the party's efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare are likely thwarted for now. (For more information on this and other political stories, subscribe to the White House Patch to receive daily newsletters and breaking news alerts.)

There are three main features of the bill that would cause the lower rate of coverage:

• Cuts to Medicaid would reduce enrollment.
• Fewer people would enroll in the individual market because of low subsidies.
• Because the bill would get rid of the penalty for not buying health insurance, fewer people would choose to get covered.

"Those losses in coverage would be partly offset by enrollment in new programs established by states using the block grants and by somewhat higher enrollment in employment-based insurance," the CBO said. "Many of the new programs would probably cover people with characteristics similar to those of people made eligible for Medicaid by the ACA."

The reductions in coverage would ramp up in size by 2020, according to CBO.

The score evaluates the bill's effects on the long-term budget deficits and whether the legislation contains as much deficit reduction as the American Health Care Act, which the House of Representatives passed in May. It found that the bill would reduce the deficit by $133 billion in 2026.

Without an evaluation on the budget criterion, the Senate would have been able to pass the bill with fewer than 60 votes.

The CBO said it would "need at least several weeks to provide point estimates of the effects on the deficit, health insurance coverage, and premiums."

On Sunday night, multiple outlets obtained copies of a new draft of the bill, which altered the formula somewhat that determines the level of funding each state gets. But the CBO only evaluated the original version of the Graham-Cassidy bill, not the most recent version that leaked.

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Correction: This story initially misstated which version of the bill the CBO will score; it is evaluating the original version of the bill.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images