Democrats Brace For Quick Special Election In Deep-Blue Senate District 15

By Markus Schmidt, Virginia Mercury

Novemebr 19, 2025

A special election to fill the state Senate seat being vacated by Lt. Gov.-elect Ghazala Hashmi is expected to take place before the General Assembly convenes for its 2026 session in January, setting up a rapid-fire Democratic contest in a deep-blue district that spans parts of Richmond and Chesterfield County.

Hashmi, a Democrat first elected in 2019, won the lieutenant governorship earlier this month, leaving her 15th District seat open just one year into her second term.

Under Virginia law, the highest-ranking member of the Senate — currently Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas, D-Portsmouth — is responsible for calling a special election while the chamber is still in session. If lawmakers have adjourned, the responsibility shifts to the governor.

Lucas did not respond to a request for comment.

Sen. Lamont Bagby, D-Henrico, chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia, said Democrats are preparing to move quickly once a date is announced.

“We’re waiting on Senator Lucas to set a special election and then have something done swiftly,” Bagby told The Mercury Tuesday. “I feel good about our chances of winning the district, but we still have to run through the tape and do the work and not take it for granted.”

Bagby cautioned that Democrats have seen districts with strong general-election advantages become unexpectedly competitive when turnout is low.

“You can’t just assume that you put a Democrat on the ballot and folks are just going to come and you’re going to get the same result as that previous general election,” he said. “It requires doing the work.”

A heavily Democratic district

Senate District 15, which was redrawn ahead of the 2023 cycle, is one of the bluest seats in the state.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, it consistently backed Democratic candidates running for state and federal offices by comfortable margins in recent elections. The district is home to more than 133,000 registered voters, and its demographics and voting patterns make it a safe Democratic hold — at least on paper.

Ernest McGowen, a political science professor at the University of Richmond, said the district’s shifting demographics make it even harder for Republicans to compete than in previous cycles.

“That is going to be a hard seat to flip,” he said, noting that since the most recent redistricting “the district is more fully moving Democrat.”

McGowen pointed to the rapid diversification of south Richmond and northern Chesterfield — including more affluent Black households moving into northwest Chesterfield and fast-growing Latino communities in south Richmond — as trends that “will likely make it a solid hold.”

A special election, he added, could give Democrats “another enthusiasm boost” heading into the next cycle.

David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, agreed that the district has become “a solid Democratic seat” in recent cycles.

“Looking at the past few elections, the district has gone for Democrats by 30 points. I don’t think the Republicans have a chance to grab the seat.”

Still, Richards said Republicans may participate even if the odds are long, arguing that the party needs to be visible everywhere if it hopes to rebuild statewide after their devastating statewide losses in the 2025 election.

“Maybe they would take note of the Democratic strategy in the recent election, where the Dems ran in all 100 House of Delegates districts,” he said. “If the GOP wants to get back into the ring in Virginia, they need to do the same, run candidates even in places where they will likely lose. They need to rebuild their brand in Virginia ahead of 2026.”

As of Tuesday afternoon, no Republican has formally filed to run. The district’s 2023 GOP nominee Hayden Fisher — who lost to Hashmi 62–37% — said in an email that he was not seeking a rematch this year.

Over the weekend, some voters received a phone survey mentioning former Sen. Joe Morrissey as a possible independent candidate.

Morrissey, who represented the old Senate District 16 until losing a Democratic primary in 2023, has made headlines in September for breaking ranks with his party by endorsing Republican lieutenant governor nominee John Reid.

But when asked by the Virginia Mercury if he was considering the race, Morrissey replied via text that he has “no plans” to run.

Two Democrats already in

Two sitting House members — Del. Debra Gardner, D-Chesterfield, and Del. Michael Jones, D-Richmond — have already announced campaigns, positioning themselves for what could be a short and intense primary.

Gardner, first elected to the House two years ago, said she plans to continue the work Hashmi began.

“I want to thank Lt. Gov-Elect Hashmi for her service as our state senator,” Gardner said in a statement. She emphasized her background in advocacy and social services, adding: “I’ve spent my career serving Virginia families — from protecting survivors of abuse to fighting for fair wages and affordable health care.”

Before her stint in the House, Gardner spent seven years as a social worker before holding senior roles at the Commission on Virginia Alcohol Safety Action Program and the Virginia Department of Corrections. She later oversaw several Richmond agencies under former Mayor Dwight C. Jones before founding D2G-Coaching, a firm focused on executive training and social work. In 2019, she narrowly lost a bid for the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors.

Gardner linked her Senate bid to the incoming Democratic administration that swept all three statewide races this year: “I’m excited to work with Gov.-elect (Abigail) Spanberger to move Virginia forward and protect our narrow Senate majority.”

Jones, who has served in the House since early 2024, highlighted his progressive record and his support from local elected officials.

“I am eager to continue to provide strong, progressive, compassionate, energetic leadership to Chesterfield County and Richmond in the state Senate,” he said in a statement announcing his candidacy.

Prior to his election to the House of Delegates, Jones served on Richmond City Council from 2016 to 2023, including a term as council president, and became known for pushing changes to public safety and monument policy.

He championed efforts to remove Confederate statues, backed limits on police use of force during the 2020 protests, and supported an examination of the Richmond Police Department’s budget. He also backed the city’s SPEED plan to address disparities in education, housing and health care.

In his statement, Jones framed the 2025 election as a continuation of statewide momentum.

“Election Night, Virginians spoke overwhelmingly that they are tired and frustrated with President Trump and Republican policies,” he said. He promised to focus on affordable housing, public school funding, health care access, gun violence prevention and small business development.

Because the special election date will come quickly, Democrats are preparing for a firehouse primary — a party-run election that typically takes place at a limited number of polling locations over a short window of time. Firehouse primaries are often used when legal deadlines or logistical constraints make a state-run primary impractical.

Special elections in Virginia often draw low turnout even in competitive districts, and the timing — likely early 2026, depending on when Hashmi formally steps down as senator — could limit participation further.

This story was originally published by the Virginia Mercury. For more stories from the Virginia Mercury, visit VirginiaMercury.com.