VA Leaves Stressed By Drought, Fall Foliage Colors Likely To Dim

VIRGINIA — Fall colors across the state may be muted this year because of heat stress and drought, experts have said. Drought-stressed trees along the Blue Ridge, Shenandoah Valley, central and northern Virginia have begun changing color early, the Virginia Department of Forestry said.

Many trees are browning and losing their leaves quickly, so the overall effect is muted this season.The variety in landscape and elevation provides a long fall foliage season, starting earliest in the higher elevations and moving eastward.

Fall colors generally peak sometime between Oct. 10 and Oct. 31; however, these dates can vary from year to year, based on factors such as temperature and rainfall, the Virginia Department of Forestry said in its Oct. 4 fall foliage report.

So far, green leaves dominate all but the highest mountains. The high elevations of southwest Virginia and the Alleghanies are showing some color – 20 percent in some areas – with mid-slopes more patchy and lower elevations still green.

While the woods are still mostly green east of the Blue Ridge, the color has noticeably lightened as chlorophyll leaches away, revealing the usually hidden yellow pigments. Red colors, resulting from trapped sugars in the leaves, will develop as the nights cool in the coming weeks, the VDF said. Virginia creeper, dogwood, sourwood, and sumacs are already reddening the roadsides.

A map that helps leaf-peepers time their fall foliage tours suggests leaves in Northern Virginia and the mountains will be their most brilliant the week of Oct. 23, while the peak of color arrives Oct. 30 for the rest of the state.

The 2023 Fall Foliage Prediction Map, released last month from the travel group SmokyMountains.com, uses historical and forecast temperatures and precipitation, the types of trees prominent in specific geographic areas, and real-time user reports to forecast when fall colors will peak.

Here's what the DNR says to expect from fall foliage this year and when leaf peepers can catch a glimpse of fall’s best colors.

Related: Fall Foliage Peak 2023: When To Time Leaf-Peeping Tours In VA

The USDA Forest Service says three primary factors influence autumn leaf color: leaf pigments, length of night, and weather.

The Virginia Department of Forestry's recommended fall foliage driving tours designed by local foresters include:

• Charlottesville Area - Greene County
• Harrisonburg Area - Rockingham County
• Harrisonburg Area - Shenandoah County
• Lexington Area - Bath County
• Front Royal Area - Warren County
• Roanoke Area - Bedford County
• Roanoke Area - Craig County
• Roanoke Area - Franklin County
• Staunton Area - Highland County

Other top places to see fall leaves in Virginia to consider:

Shenandoah National Park

Shenandoah National Park features beautiful fall scenery across its entire landscape. Bold autumn hues await your arrival in the wooded hollows, fields of wildflowers, and all around the scenic vistas. For the best fall views, visit Old Rag Mountain to see the tree canopies create a quilt of color. Don't miss the Big Meadows either to find fall blooms and watch the tall grasses change their hues.

Whitetop Mountain

With a trip up to the summit of Whitetop Mountain, you can gaze in wonder at the colorful grasses, shrubs, and trees. If you go early in the season, you can also enjoy the wondrous calls of songbirds, including black-throated green warbler and dark-eyed junco. All it takes to get there is a leisurely drive up the gravel road right off State Route 600, near the Tennessee border. Once you reach the top, there's nothing between you and the patchwork of reds, oranges, and golds as far as the eye can see.

Potomac Heritage Trail

Looking to stay closer to D.C., the Potomac Heritage Trail lets you meander along the riverside at your leisure. Whether you choose to hike or ride your bike, you can stay on the main trail to follow the Potomac River's journey. Or you can opt for the side trails to loop through the forests full of tulip poplars, sycamores, and oak trees. The views are perhaps even more impressive right on the Potomac River, so don't hesitate to bring down your canoe or kayak.

More 2023 Fall Foliage Predictions

• The Farmer’s Almanac predicts that much of New England will be at or near peak fall color by October 11; a little further south in the Blue Ridge Mountains, it looks like mid-October is Maryland's best bet for peak fall color.
• According to the Washington Post, Maryland should see peak colors by mid-October with an ultimate peak arriving around Oct. 23. The northern half of Virginia should be past peak by then.