Winter 'Snow Drought' In DC Area Forecast To Stretch Into Late January

VIRGINIA — Two storms headed eastward next week are likely to produce snow in parts of the interior Northeast, but rain will fall along the Interstate 95 corridor in Virginia, continuing a weather pattern that is expected to keep the area “stuck in a snow drought,” according to meteorologists at AccuWeather.

The first storm is expected to arrive in the D.C. area Sunday into Monday, and the second system should arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday. But the chance of snow is likely only in parts of the mountains of West Virginia, western Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York state on Sunday night and Monday.

"For snow lovers in and near the big I-95 cities in the Northeast, it will be another disappointing storm, where umbrellas and raincoats will be the needed accessories, rather than snow boots and gloves," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said Thursday.

With neither of the two storms expected to produce measurable snow, there is an excellent chance that the snow drought from D.C. to New York City will continue. No measurable snow has fallen so far this winter in D.C., Philadelphia and New York City, according to AccuWeather.

The average first accumulating snowfall has been shifting later into the calendar year in recent decades in much of the coastal U.S. Northeast because of climate change and urbanization, according to The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that snow droughts will occur more frequently amid climate change.

During winter, snow that accumulates on the ground and remains frozen acts as "snowpack," which typically acts as a natural reservoir to provide water during the summer months, NOAA says. A snow drought reduces the amount of snowpack that can get released upon melting. This hurts streamflow and soil moisture, which can affect water supplies, fisheries, vegetation, wildfire and wildlife.

D.C. and Baltimore are about a month away from setting a record for the latest date for their first measurable snowfall in a winter. The latest first measurable snow in D.C. is Feb. 23, and the latest first measurable snow in Baltimore is Feb. 21. New York City is 10 days away from setting the record for the latest measurable snowfall in a winter. Its latest measurable snowfall is Jan. 29.

Even the coldest and snowiest parts of the Mid-Atlantic have seen historically low snowfall so far this winter, according to the Capital Weather Gang. Canaan Valley, one of the snowiest regions of West Virginia, is about 42 inches below average to date.

"Snow lovers are probably best advised to head West for reliable snow until further notice," the Capital Weather Gang said, noting the huge snowfall in the Sierra Nevada mountain range and the Rockies.

For Thursday night, the National Weather Service said showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorm, before 7 p.m. in Northern Virginia. The NWS also issued a hazardous weather outlook for the D.C. area, with dense fog possible in areas across the region.

Here's the NWS forecast for the close-in suburbs of D.C. for the next few days:

Thursday night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7 p.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Patchy fog before 2 a.m. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a northwest wind 11 to 16 mph increasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. West wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Sunday: Rain likely after 1 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.

Sunday night: Rain likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Breezy.