'Super El Niño' Likely In VA As Phenomenon Reaches Historic Strength

VIRGINIA — As months of headlines trumpeting an historic El Niño winter gave way to a lackluster start to Virginia's winter, something unprecedented was quietly happening in the Pacific Ocean.

Historically warm surface temperatures contributed to an increased likelihood of an El Niño for the record books, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.

"Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño during the November-January season," according to the Climate Prediction Center. "An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950."

This fall and winter, so far, has been warmer than normal in Northern Virginia, with little snowfall.

The agency, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, expects the El Niño pattern to bring warmer than normal conditions to Virginia this winter. El Niño isn’t the only driver in winter weather patterns. Air temperatures and climate change play a big role, too, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

In most El Niño winters, Northern Virginia has equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures from January to March. In moderate to strong El Niño winters, we normally see a 40-50 percent chance of temperatures leaning toward the above average range.

A NOAA climate blog says, "The D.C. area historically sees above-average snowfall during El Niño winters."

The blog says past strong El Niño winters have brought 4 to 10 inches more in snowfall to the Maryland-DC-Virginia reason. But anything can happen.

In most El Niño winters, Northern Virginia has about 2 or 4 more inches than the average snowfall from January to March, according to the Climate Prediction Center. In moderate to strong El Niño winters, we normally see closer to 6 or 8 more inches of snowfall above the average during that period.

El Niño is known for warmer-than-normal waters along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific, a pattern that drives wet and stormy weather to some parts of the planet while starving others of moisture. Which states see El Niño bring more weather extremes, and what kinds, depends on how the system interacts with other climatic patterns and fluctuations, the Washington Post said Dec. 15.

This year’s El Niño, which began developing in June, is the first in four years. Not all El Niños are the same, and that adds uncertainty to winter forecasts, according to The Weather Channel.

Right now, it looks like we can expect above average temperatures with equal chances of snow or rain in Northern Virginia, according to the private weather company’s outlook. Snowfall totals are expected to be slightly above average for the rest of the state.

In general, the forecast calls for warmer-than-average temperatures in the northern U.S. from the Great Lakes to western Canada to Alaska; drier-than-normal conditions in the Midwest and Ohio Valley; wetter conditions in the Southwest; and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the South and Southeast.

While scientists anticipate a rare super El Niño over the winter, there are signs it will abruptly return to neutral conditions by summer.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric models show a likely end to El Niño conditions by June and a return to neutral conditions. And then, well La Niña, which brings drier than normal weather conditions and an active Atlantic hurricane season is a good bet, the Post said.

"What goes up must come down! Our current thinking is that neutral conditions are most likely to develop by April­–June," the Climate Prediction Center wrote on its ENSO blog. "Then … La Niña and neutral are nearly even odds for July­–September, with El Niño a distant third. Most, but not all, of the stronger El Niño events in our historical record were followed by La Niña, so that would not be unusual."