Here’s How An El Niño Winter Could Shake Out In Northern Virginia

VIRGINIA — An El Niño climate pattern will mean Virginians will have a wetter winter, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in an updated U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday. But will that mean more snow?

AccuWeather and other long-range weather prediction services call for a snowier and colder winter ahead with the arrival of El Niño, a climate cycle that results in the unusual warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters.

The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years. Northern Virginia is forecast to have around a 33 to 40 percent chance of wetter-than-average conditions, with no drought concerns. Areas closer to the Blue Ridge Mountains have equal chances of above average and below average precipitation this winter.

As for temperatures, the probability of higher-than-average temperatures this winter leans above normal in the Northern Virginia region.

But this new enhanced wet weather forecast does not equate to higher snow totals, since the average temperature is also expected to be higher than normal, NOAA forecasters said.

According to AccuWeather's 2023-24 winter outlook, there could be multiple nor'easters from Boston to Philadelphia and even skirting the DC region, which could also affect NoVA in January and February, dumping inches of snow compared to the miniscule amount that the DC region saw over the weak 2022-23 winter.

The only measurable snow in the Washington, D.C., region recorded last season was half an inch in February, according to the National Weather Service. Trace amounts of snow were noted in December, January, and March. The yearly average snowfall amount for Northern Virginia is 15 inches.

"The window for snow-producing nor'easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond," AccuWeather predicted for the 2023-24 winter.

AccuWeather long-range meteorologists are predicting 18-26 inches in New York City and 16-24 inches in Philadelphia and further south in total for the coming winter, which is around the historical average.

"An early-season nor'easter can't be ruled out either as the ingredients for a snowstorm may come together sometime in November," AccuWeather continued.

Much of Northern Virginia is not expected to be affected by drought conditions in the winter. However, the more mountainous areas around the Blue Ridge Mountains could either see drought remain but improve or drought conditions leave.

Other long-range outlooks suggest cold, snowy weather this winter.

The Farmers’ Almanac suggests in its extended 2023-24 winter forecast that “the BRRR is back,” but also that snow shovels will see plenty of action. In Virginia, the Farmer's Almanac is predicting "frosty, flaky and slushy" conditions this winter.

The competing Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting plenty of snow and cold in its 2024 winter forecast. That outlook suggests the winter in Virginia will be cold and snowy.