COVID-19 Cases Drop By 50% In Virginia, Transmission Rates Remain High

VIRGINIA — The number of new COVID-19 cases continues to decline in the majority of health districts across Virginia, although all counties in the state are still labeled as having “high” community transmission rates.

All of Northern Virginia is seeing a declining growth trajectory in COVID-19 cases, while the Northern Neck, parts of Southside Virginia and Southwest Virginia are still dealing with "in surge" status due to the omicron variant of the coronavirus, according to researchers at the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute.

The daily case averages in Virginia remain well above the levels at this time a year ago, when vaccines were still getting rolled out to health care workers and residents of assisted living facilities. But the declining number of cases over the past two weeks may indicate the surge in cases from the omicron variant has reached its peak.

“Though omicron is milder for most, it is still capable of causing serious illness and death,” the UVA researchers said in their latest COVID-19 update released Friday. “Vaccination strongly protects against hospitalization and death.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates the omicron variant represents 99 percent of all new cases in Virginia.

Virginia health officials also are on the lookout for the “stealth” omicron variant, which goes by the scientific name BA.2. The state has yet to officially announce the first case of this new member of omicron variant family.

The new omicron variant could extend the omicron surge in much of the world. “So far, BA.2 doesn’t appear to cause more severe disease, and vaccines are just as effective against it as they are against other forms of Omicron,” the New York Times reported Sunday. “But it does show signs of spreading more readily.”

The seven-day moving average for positive COVID-19 cases in Virginia dropped to 9,194 cases on Monday, down from a record high of 18,782 cases on Jan. 13, more than a 50 percent decline.

In Fairfax County, the decline in cases has been even more dramatic. On Jan. 13, the 7-day moving average for positive cases was at a record 2,520. On Monday, the 7-day moving average had dropped to 753, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

The percent positivity rate based on a 7-day moving average is now at 25 percent, after reaching a record high of 36.7 percent on Jan. 7.

Hospitalizations in Virginia reached record high levels about 10 days ago, exceeding last year's peak in the state by 25 percent, the UVA researchers said in their latest COVID-19 update released Friday.

On Jan. 19, the 7-day moving average for hospitalizations stood at 3,875 in Virginia. On Monday, the 7-day moving had dropped to 3,242. At this time last year, after a huge surge in hospitalizations in January 2021, the 7-day moving average of hospitalizations stood 2,732, according to the VDH.

Across the country, hospitalizations for COVID-19 are also on the decline. But the moving 7-day average of daily deaths of people with COVID-19, a lagging indicator, continues to rise, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.

Deaths of people with COVID-19 reached a 7-day average of 2,379 on Friday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, putting COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are at their highest level since February 2021.

RELATED: COVID Cases Drop 36% In Virginia As Omicron Slows