How A La Niña Winter Could Affect VA Home Heating Bills

VIRGINIA — Heating costs in Virginia and most of the rest of the country should be about the same as last year as lower energy prices mostly offset colder weather associated with a La Niña climate pattern, the government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, heating costs in Virginia and the Northeast region of the United States are expected to be:

• Natural gas: $772, a 1 percent increase from 2023
• Electricity: $1,391, a 5 percent increase from 2023
• Propane: $1,674, a 1 percent increase from 2023
• Heating oil: $1,410, a 5 percent decrease from 2023

That’s assuming the forecast for La Niña winter to develop plays out. An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says Virginia has equal chances of below-, near- or above-average seasonal temperatures.

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While lower prices and colder weather may combine for relatively little change in home heating costs in most of the country, one exception is the Midwest, where last winter was very mild. With a more seasonal winter expected this year, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source.

The southern U.S. is another exception. Winter in that part of the country is expected to be mild and heating costs could be lower than last winter, according to the forecast.

The price of crude is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise “the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases,” the EIA said.