Hurricane Matthew Heads North, Southeast U.S. Prepares for Unclear Path

MIAMI, FLA — Hurricane Matthew slowed in forward movement late Sunday morning and had lost a little bit of power. Even so, with 140 mph maximum sustained winds, the Category 4 storm still poses a significant threat in the Caribbean forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say.

As of 11 a.m. Sunday, Matthew was located about 350 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti. The storm was moving west at 3 mph. Forecasters described Matthew's movements as "meandering," in the 11 a.m. Tropical Weather Outlook report Sunday.

On its current forecast track, Matthew is expected to approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday before moving on to Cuba. Hurricane warnings have been issued across that area, with hurricane watches issued in the Bahamas.

Fluctuations in strength are anticipated, but the forecasters warn that the storm will remain a major hurricane at least through Monday — and that there is significant uncertainty in the forecast past that point.

Potential impacts on the U.S. are too far out to determine, but emergency management officials in the Carolinas and across the Southeast are preparing for potential impacts, and the weather service notes it is still possible the hurricane could impact Florida on its way north.

The Weather Channel refers to Hurricane Matthew's projected path as "flirting" with parts of the East Coast, beginning next weekend.

"Even if Matthew stays well to the east of Florida and the East Coast, dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion are likely, particularly from the Virginia Tidewater south late this week into the weekend," according to Weather Channel forecasters.

A storm system that is expected to move through the central U.S. will likely be an early determining factor on Matthew's impact on the U.S. coast, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Mike Doll.

"If that system is slower to reach the eastern U.S., the chance that Matthew hits the Carolinas is greater," Doll told AccuWeather reports Sunday.

While Matthew continues northwest, another system also has forecasters’ attention. A broad low pressure system was located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands as of Sunday morning. That system is moving northwest at 15 mph and has increased chances of developing over the next few days. Forecasters have set development chances at 30 percent through the next five days. It is still too early to tell if the storm will have any impact on the United States.

Hurricane Season's Peak

Hurricane Matthew’s formation comes at the peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Forecasters at the hurricane center say the eight-week period that begins in mid-August and runs through mid-October is a “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

With reporting by Sherri Lonon | National Hurricane Center Images