Hurricane Matthew Targets Caribbean; Florida, Carolinas Prepare for Impacts

MIAMI, FL — The projected path of powerful Hurricane Matthew shifted in the afternoon hours Monday, putting it on a course that may result in major damage as it tears up the U.S. coast later this week. The Category 4 storm is expected to arrive offshore of Florida Thursday afternoon and possibly make landfall in the Carolinas as it clips the coast and continues heading north.

Florida and North Carolina have issued states of emergency Monday afternoon, as other states also begin preparing for potential impacts from the storm later this week.

As forecasters track Matthew’s trek through the Caribbean, they’re also keeping a close watch on another system in the Atlantic Ocean. That disturbance may have an impact on the East Coast in the future as it makes its way west-northwest from the Leeward Islands.

Hurricane Matthew was located about 140 miles south of Tiburon, Haiti, as of the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. update Monday, Oct. 3. The storm was moving north at 7 mph.

On its current projected path, Matthew is expected to near Jamaica and southwest Haiti overnight Monday. The storm is anticipated to clear Cuba on Tuesday before moving into the Atlantic Ocean on a course near the Bahamas. Just where Matthew will go after Cuba is somewhat uncertain. It's still not clear which part of the U.S. coast will see impacts from the storm.

There's at least a "decent chance" of tropical-storm force winds from Hurricane Matthew near the Carolina coast and southeast Virginia by this weekend, according to the Weather Channel.

"Even if Matthew stays well to the east of Florida and the East Coast, dangerous swells, coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely, particularly from the Virginia Tidewater south late this week into the weekend," according to the Weather Channel forecast.

Rip currents will likely be life-threatening along the south, according to AccuWeather. Vacationers and beachgoers are encouraged to heed local swimming advisories.

The second storm under watch by the hurricane center is a broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles northwest of the Leeward Islands. The storm’s chances of developing have increased over the past day. Forecasters now say there’s about a 40 percent chance of further development over the next five days.

On its current projected path, the storm could have an impact along the Eastern Seaboard in the future. The system is moving west-northwest to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Hurricane Matthew’s formation comes at the peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Forecasters at the hurricane center say the eight-week period that begins in mid-August and runs through mid-October is a “season within the season.” This eight-week period “is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity,” NOAA explained on its website.

The eight-week period is historically responsible for major spikes in tropical weather activity, NOAA said. In fact, it accounts for about 78 percent of all tropical storm days on record. It is also the period when 87 percent of the category 1 and 2 hurricane days on record occurred. In addition, this period is responsible for “a whopping 96 percent of the major (category 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days.”

Tampa Bay hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. Even so, it’s had some close calls this year. Most recently, Hurricane Hermine left flooding woes in her wake as she passed by on her way to the Panhandle. Experts say the region's lucky streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s Peak is Now
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Includes reporting by Sherri Lonon | Graphics courtesy of NOAA