La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For VA

As summer nears its end, long-range forecasters have their sights set on winter and how the potential for La Niña could impact the season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a La Niña watch for the end of 2025. The watch means there is about a 55 percent chance a weak La Niña will develop this fall and early winter before conditions return to neutral.

La Niña typically means that northeastern and mid-Atlantic states, including Virginia, see average precipitation and warmer-than-average temperatures. La Niña and El Niño are part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are phases of sea surface temperature and atmospheric changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that have global impacts.

"ENSO-neutral is most likely through the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56 percent chance in August–October)," NOAA said. "Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in the fall and early winter 2025–26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral."

This means that the Pacific Ocean will likely stay neutral through late summer. After that, there’s a fair chance of a short-lived, weak La Niña in the fall and early winter before conditions return to neutral.

NOAA's maps show that most of Virginia has a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures for the winter. And as of the latest update, there are equal chances of there being above or below normal seasonal precipitation in Northern Virginia, while southeastern parts of the state could see above-average precipitation.

National La Niña Outlook

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from California’s Central Coast to Florida and up the entire East Coast, is moderately likely to see above-average temperatures this winter. For much of the Midwest, it is equally likely to be above or below normal. Just Washington state and southeast Alaska are likely to see below-average temperatures.

Much of the southern U.S., stretching from the Bay Area in a U-shape to the Washington D.C. area, is moderately likely to see below-average precipitation. Pockets of the Midwest and parts east, including Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, and much of Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska, are 33-40 percent likely to see above-average precipitation. The rest of the country remains uncertain.

On that note, much of this forecast remains relatively uncertain. "Nothing is guaranteed in this business," said Michelle L’Heureux, scientist at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA updates its long-range outlooks monthly, and the next forecast is scheduled for Sept. 19 . Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. See here for predictions through November 2026.