VA Hurricane Season: Forecasters Downgrade Prediction For 2024 Storms

VIRGINIA — A lull in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to continue for Virginia and along the Eastern Seaboard, an updated forecast from AccuWeather said.

Forecasters recently reduced the forecast for the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes this year.

There was limited tropical activity in the Atlantic basin during an “unusual August,” AccuWeather said. It was also the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades: The last time there was not a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin between Aug. 21 to Sept. 2 was in 1997.

AccuWeather now predicts 16 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to six major hurricanes forecast this season, as well as four to six direct impacts to the United States.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called for anywhere from 17 to 24 named storms with winds 39 mph or greater, during what is expected to be a “highly active” Atlantic hurricane season, in its mid-season hurricane outlook update Aug. 7.

So far, there have been five named storms this season, none of which have hit Virginia directly — though the remnants of Beryl and Debby brought heavy rain and thunderstorms, and Ernesto kicked up some rough surf.

The hurricane season peaks Sept. 10 and ends Nov. 30, though forecasters say tropical threats could extend into December because of warm water temperatures. Virginia typically sees the most tropical storm activity between August and late October.

Following the historic lull in tropical activity in August with no named storms, AccuWeather meteorologists are now monitoring six potential tropical threats that might bring impacts to the United States starting Sept. 7 and into next week.

One area a few hundred miles off the mid-Atlantic coast was being watched closely into the end of the week since weak circulation was seen in the cloud patterns, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. The system was classified a tropical rainstorm on Thursday and has the potential to become a tropical depression or named tropical storm as it pushes offshore along the East Coast before coming onshore in Canada this weekend.

The next five storm names are Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac and Joyce.

Keeping an eye on tropical activity

The reduction in forecast storms comes as three tropical waves are being eyed for possible development — one in the Caribbean Sea and two in the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The amount of dry air and Saharan dust in the Atlantic last month, as well as the slower-than-expected progression to a La Niña pattern has caused more wind shear in the first half of the season, slowing the formation of storms, said Accuweather's lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.

Meteorologists are also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off Africa’s west coast, which “is disrupting the tropical wave train,” DaSilva added. “Extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin area ideal for tropical development and rapid intensification, but the surge of dry air, dust, wind shear, and cold waters off the coast of Africa have prevented most tropical waves from developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane.”

Jon Porter, Accuweather chief meteorologist, said, “Should the current lull continue deeper into September, reductions in the forecast number of named storms will be needed because a longer time period in the core of the hurricane season will have been devoid of named storms.”

Still an 'impactful and destructive' hurricane season

The revised forecast of 16 to 20 named storms is still above the historical average of 14 in the Atlantic.

Despite the reduction in forecast storms, it’s “already been a very impactful and destructive hurricane season,” Porter said, adding, “We warned that Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas faced a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.

"Three of those four areas have already verified this season," Porter continued. "Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the Texas coast in July. Hurricane Debby hit the Big Bend region of Florida in August, followed by a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina.”

A preliminary estimate of the total damage from Beryl ranges from $28 to $32 billion, while the estimated economic loss and damage from Debby is $28 billion.

Several major records have already been broken this season. Beryl was the earliest major hurricane on record to form east of the Lesser Antilles in June, the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form and the fastest-moving Category 5 hurricane on record.