Will La Niña Bring Warm November Temps To VA?

VIRGINIA — If you’re looking forward to the chillier air that is historically typical in November, you may have to get out of Virginia and head north to find it until an expected La Niña climate pattern ushers in colder, snowier weather more typical of winter.

In an updated November outlook Wednesday from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2, forecasters said November temperatures in Northern Virginia are expected to be above normal, while western parts of the state could experience slightly above normal temperatures.

Daytime temperatures at this time of year are usually in the 50s in Northern Virginia.

October daytime temperatures in Northern Virginia have fluctuated dramatically, according to data from The Weather Channel. On 5 days, the temperature reached 80 degrees or above; however, temperatures dropped to the 60s on multiple days and throughout much of the month's final week.

Nationally, fall temperatures have been warmer than the forecasters originally expected. The hottest November temperatures are expected in the nation’s midsection, from Minnesota to Texas and western Montana to upstate New York.

The only places in the country expected to have near-normal November temperatures are Southern California and other parts of the desert Southwest. Predictions for unseasonably warm temperatures lingering into December come amid mounting concern that climate change is making summers hotter and extending the warm weather well into fall.

Earlier this fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they’re confident a La Niña to develop yet this winter, but doubt it will be a strong pattern associated with consistent cold weather and heavy snowfall or other precipitation.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate pattern that causes predictable changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. They’re not the only factors in weather, but El Niño generally favors warmer, drier weather, while the opposite is true with a La Niña. Either can have an outsized effect during the winter months.

Forecasters originally expected a La Niña to develop late last winter, which turned out to be the warmest on record in the continental U.S. and worldwide.