VA Hurricane Season: Updated Forecast Calls For More Storms In 2023

VIRGINIA — Tropical storm activity is expected to ramp up in the Atlantic as the peak of the 2023 hurricane season nears, and two agencies have updated their predictions to say more storms are likely to spawn than were previously forecast.

Virginia officials are reminding residents to be prepared as the state approaches the typical time for hurricane activity.

Hurricane season in the Atlantic runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with the peak season running between August and late October.

The National Hurricane Center forecasters said Thursday that the region can expect an above-average number of hurricanes in a season that hasn't seen any storms approach the U.S. so far. Five storms have reached tropical storm strength and one developed into Hurricane Don.

NOAA is now predicting 14 to 21 named storms this season, an increase from its May prediction of 12 to 17 storms.

A weather disturbance becomes a tropical storm when wind speeds reach 39 mph and becomes a hurricane when wind speeds reach 74 mph.

Of the 14 to 21 predicted storms, six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes, NOAA said. This increases the National Hurricane Center's outlook for the season from near-normal to "an above-normal level of activity."

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration's Climate Prediction Center, said the conditions that forecasters predicted would limit hurricane activity have been slow to develop, while unprecedented heat in the south could fuel storms.

Rosencrans said NOAA is 70 percent certain about Thursday's updated outlook predicting two to five major hurricanes reaching Category 3 to 5 levels.

Related: Here Are The 2023 Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names

AccuWeather's Updated Forecast

An updated hurricane forecast on Aug. 2 from AccuWeather called for an increased number of increased storms, and said the Atlantic basin could become "very active" later this August. There have already been five tropical storms in 2023, said AccuWeather.

The weather agency forecasts 13 to 17 named storms this year in their update, higher than March's initial forecast of 11 to 15 storms.

AccuWeather said between four and eight of the predicted storms could reach hurricane-strength, and up to three of them could become major hurricanes — that is, those with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Two to four of these storms could directly impact East Coast states, said AccuWeather.

"This hurricane season could be the eighth in a row with the number of named storms being at or above the historical average of 14," said AccuWeather. "The last time a season ended below this benchmark was in 2015, when only 11 named systems developed."

In comparison, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center forecasted between 12 and 17 named storms in their Atlantic hurricane season predictions. Of these, between five and nine could become hurricanes (categorized as having winds over 73 mph) — with at least one major hurricane, and possibly up to four.

Weather patterns show that Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern states may be spared the worst of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, AccuWeather said — but forecasters urge residents in hurricane-prone areas to get their plans in place.

Hurricane Preparation Tips

Review your insurance policy, secure your property, and create a plan that includes arrangements for your pets or those that may need extra assistance. Below are a few critical steps to ensure you and your family’s safety.

Know your zone. Evacuation may become necessary depending on the track and severity of the storm. Review Virginia’s evacuation zones at KnowYourZoneVA.org. Users can enter their physical address in the search bar of the website to view and confirm their designated evacuation zone.

Complete a family communication plan. Prepare for how you will assemble and communicate with your family and loved ones. Identify meeting locations and anticipate where you will go. Federal Emergency Management Agency guidance on family communications plans is available here.

Check your insurance coverage. Remember, there may be a waiting period (typically 30 days) for a flood insurance policy to become effective, and be aware that not all storm-related losses, such as flooding, are covered under traditional policies. Now is the time to review your coverage and contact your insurance agent for any changes. If you are not insured against floods, talk to your insurance agent, shop private flood insurance, or visit floodsmart.gov. If you are a renter, now is the time to ensure you have adequate coverage to protect your belongings. It is also imperative that you have adequate coverage on all insurance policies to ensure it reflects current home values and replacement costs.

Make an emergency kit. Assemble an emergency kit that includes nonperishable food, water, medication, sanitary supplies, radios, extra batteries, and important documents. Learn more about building an emergency supply kit here.

Stay informed. Identify where to go for trusted sources of information during emergencies. Check with your local emergency management office to sign up for alerts that go directly to your phone or email. Be sure to monitor local news for watches and warnings in your area and follow directions of local officials. Power outages are always a concern during storms; make sure you have a battery-operated radio available so you can still receive life-saving alerts.

There are many resources available to assist with hurricane planning efforts. Learn more about preparing your business, your family, and your property against hurricane threats (and other disasters) at vaemergency.gov/prepare and ready.gov/hurricanes.

Residents should take these safety precautions before a storm heads toward Virginia:

• Sign up for alerts and warnings from your county and state, as well as NOAA Weather Radio https://www.weather.gov/nwr/
• Make a plan - visit https://www.ready.gov/plan
• Save for a rainy day - visit https://www.ready.gov/financial-preparedness
• Practice emergency drills both at home and at the office
• Make and test a family communications plan* Designate a central contact number with a family member or trusted friend, perhaps out of town* Text messages will go through when voice lines are overloaded
• Assemble or update emergency supplies - visit https://www.ready.gov/kit (includes CDC recommendations)
• Safeguard valuable documents both physically and digitally
• Make your home safer
• Get involved in your community - take an emergency course, volunteer, request a preparedness presentation
• Download the FEMA app and visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov for preparedness tips.