Polar Vortex Is Strengthening: What It Means For VA Winter Temps, Snow

The forecast for warm temperatures on Christmas Day in Virginia is a harbinger of what’s to come for most of the country through March, according to a new winter forecast.

For Virginia, the chances of a white Christmas are 20-30 percent for areas east of the Appalachians, according to a newly released forecast from The Weather Channel. Temperatures are also expected to be above average most of next week.

A storm system could move through the region between the 23rd and 25th, forecasters said, and it could be cold enough to bring snow. If that storm does not materialize, or milder temperatures win out, the chances drop to 0 percent.

The warmer temperatures are expected to continue into the early part of 2026 in the South and East as the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens at the beginning of the year, according to The Weather Channel’s outlook.

It may sound counterintuitive, but the stronger a polar vortex is, the less impactful it is, according to The Weather Channel. A stratospheric polar vortex, located higher in the atmosphere and typically stable, differs from the better-known tropospheric polar vortex, which is situated lower in the atmosphere and usually brings severe cold snaps to mid-latitude states.

The ongoing flip to cooler, wetter weather in the North and Northwest is also likely to continue, the forecast said. Bouts of wetter, colder weather in other parts of the country aren’t out of the question.

The private weather service’s January to March outlook for Virginia predicts above-average temperatures for each month, with February expected to experience the warmest weather relative to average along the East Coast.

Other highlights of The Weather Channel’s outlook include:

• January will likely continue the late-December pattern with above-average warmth across the southern two-thirds of the country.
• Without the polar vortex in play, conditions are expected to resemble La Niña: warmer than average in the south and cooler in the north.
• The northern U.S. will likely see wetter-than-average conditions, while the southern U.S. is more likely to be drier.