NoVA Housing Market: Current Patterns, Home Values & What’s Ahead for 2026

As we close out the year, Northern Virginia’s housing market continues to show its resilience. Based on The Minken Housing Index, November’s numbers reveal a landscape that is steady in many places, softening in others, and displaying a few surprising pockets of strength. Below is a closer look at how home prices and sales activity performed across the region and what these trends may mean as we head into 2026.

Home Prices Hold Their Ground With a Few Notable Swings

As shown in the data chart, most towns across Northern Virginia comprising The Minken Housing Index saw modest year-over-year price movement in November. Several posted slight gains, signaling steady demand even in the face of higher borrowing costs.

• Vienna, Falls Church, and Alexandria saw home prices rise between 5 and 7 percent. These measured increases reflect consistent demand for well-located, well-maintained homes.
• Oakton posted the most dramatic shift in the average sales price. Because Oakton had only five recorded sales during November, even a few high-end transactions can significantly move the needle. This is a reminder that averages in smaller markets often tell only part of the story.
• Softening prices appeared in McLean, Reston, Herndon, Arlington, Annandale, and Fairfax, where year-over-year drops ranged from 1 to 14 percent. These declines likely reflect a combination of more balanced negotiating power and the mix of homes that closed last month, rather than any fundamental shift in demand.

Taken together, November’s price changes suggest that Northern Virginia is continuing its gradual move toward a more normal, sustainable market.

Sales Activity Remains Balanced Despite Limited Inventory

The number of homes sold in November based on The Minken Housing Index mirrors the balanced tone of the price data, a combination of modest increases and small declines.

As shown in the data chart, sales were up in Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Annandale, indicating that buyers remain active despite tight supply. In contrast, Vienna, Oakton, McLean, Reston, and Herndon saw fewer closings in November compared to the same time last year. In higher-priced markets, low inventory often limits sales more than demand itself.

Overall, the data points to a market that is neither accelerating nor cooling dramatically. Instead, Northern Virginia continues to operate at a steady, measured pace.

What This Means for Today’s Buyers and Sellers

The slight softening in several markets offers a bit of breathing room for buyers compared to the past few years. Well-priced homes still draw strong interest, but buyers may find that negotiations are more balanced, and opportunities exist in communities where prices dipped.

For sellers, demand remains solid, especially in towns that saw an uptick in the number of homes sold. Well-presented homes that are priced realistically continue to attract motivated buyers.

Looking Ahead: Why 2026 May Bring Improved Affordability

As we look toward 2026, there are some broader trends that point to a meaningful shift in housing affordability. Incomes are rising faster than home prices, easing some of the pressure buyers have faced over the past several years. At the same time, mortgage rates are expected to settle into the low-6 percent range, providing greater stability and predictability for both buyers and sellers.

Another important factor is supply. Some homeowners who stepped back from the market after not achieving peak pricing are beginning to re-enter, while others are unlocking long-standing housing gridlock as the mortgage "lock-in effect" begins to weaken. A growing number of homeowners are expected to be making moves based on lifestyle needs rather than interest rates alone. As a result, inventory is expected to improve in 2026.

Taken together, these forces point to a 2026 real estate market that is more balanced, more navigable, and more accessible than what we’ve seen in recent years. For buyers, this may translate into more choice and less pressure. For sellers, it reinforces the value of understanding market timing and pricing rather than relying on the rapid appreciation of prior years.

If you’re thinking about making a move in 2026, or simply want to understand how these shifts may impact your home’s value, now is the ideal time to start the conversation. Local data, paired with a clear strategy, can help turn market changes into real opportunity.

Suzy Minken is a realtor with Compass based in McLean, Virginia and a recognized published voice on real estate and design trends. Suzy's insights have been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Barron's, and more. You can connect with her on Instagram and LinkedIn, as well as via email at: suzy.minken@compass.com.